Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	18:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	13:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	18:00	DAZN
Bangladesh	22:00	Begin
Belgium	18:00	DAZN 1
Bolivia	12:00	ESPN 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	13:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	19:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	12:00	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	11:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	18:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	18:00	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	18:00	DAZN, TV2 Play
Ecuador	11:00	ESPN 2
Estonia	19:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic
Finland	19:00	DAZN, MTV Urheilu 1
France	18:00	DAZN France
Georgia	20:00	Silk Sport 1
Germany	18:00	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	00:00	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	18:00	Match 4
India	21:30	ZEE5
Indonesia	23:00	ANTV, Vidio
Iraq	19:00	Almanasa
Israel	19:00	ONE Sport 2
Italy	18:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	01:00	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	18:00	Arena Premium 2
Kuwait	19:00	Shasha
Lithuania	19:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	00:00	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	00:00	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	18:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	10:00	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	18:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	04:00	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	18:00	VG+
Paraguay	12:00	ESPN 2
Peru	11:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	18:00	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	19:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	19:00	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	19:00	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	18:00	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	18:00	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	18:00	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Africa	18:00	SuperSport Football
South Korea	01:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	18:00	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Suriname	13:00	SCCN
Sweden	18:00	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	18:00	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	23:00	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	17:00	Diwan Sport
Turkey	19:00	S Sport 2
Ukraine	19:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:00	DAZN
Uruguay	13:00	Disney+
Usa	12:00	Paramount+, Peacock, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	12:00	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Lazio		Milan

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.20	2.05	Watch
	3.80	3.10	2.10
	3.75	3.15	2.05	Watch
	4.06	3.30	2.17
	3.69	3.25	2.21	Watch
	3.95	3.15	2.12
	3.96	3.25	2.08
	3.95	3.25	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (3.29)	3.21 ↑ (3.19)	2.12 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lazio
24.7%

Draw
29.9%

Milan
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.8%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

30.3%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	34.3%	54.3%

Lazio - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 4 - 11.8%). Milan will win (votes: 18 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 36.1% – 69.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Milan (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Milan (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.69) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Lazio (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 2 - 25%). Milan (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Mandas C. (G) 15. Floriani R. 37. Sutalo J. 25. Provstgaard O. 17. Tavares N. 16. Frattesi D. 21. Belahyane R. 24. Taylor K. 22. Cancellieri M. 14. Noslin T. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	16. Maignan M. (C) 34. Gila M. 5. De Winter K. 31. Pavlovic S. 21. Chukwueze S. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 2. Estupinan P. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 70. Cisse A. 9. Ramos G.
Substitutes
33. Bordon R. 32. Cataldi D. 71. Farcomeni V. 80. Gudmundsson A. 11. Isaksen G. 29. Lazzari M. 2. Leite D. 40. Motta E. (G) 23. Pedraza A. 9. Pinamonti A. 28. Przyborek A. 47. Renzetti D. (G) 63. Serra F.	33. Bartesaghi D. 73. Camarda F. 28. Comotto C. 13. Diawara S. 46. Gabbia M. 20. Hutchinson O. 30. Jashari A. 22. Moreira D. 80. Musah Y. 11. Pulisic C. 56. Saelemaekers A. 42. Terracciano F. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 23. Tomori F. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Gattuso G.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Cancellieri M. ⚽, Zaccagni M. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Noslin T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
46', Estupinan P. ↓, Moreira D. ↑,
46', Modric L. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
58', Cancellieri M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
58', Noslin T. ↓, Pinamonti A. ↑,
59', Pulisic C. 🟨,
63', Belahyane R. 🟨,
64', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
65', 2 - 1, Moreira D. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
67', 2 - 2, Moreira D. ⚽, Rabiot A. (A),
74', Taylor K. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
77', Cisse A. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
78', Zaccagni M. 🟨,
84', Sutalo J. ↓, Leite D. ↑,
84', Floriani R. ↓, Lazzari M. ↑,
85', Ramos G. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
86', Gila M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Milan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Milan has had a series of away games.

Milan might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Lazio: Cataldi D. (Groin Injury) Furlanetto A. (Knee Injury) Patric (Ankle Injury) Pellegrini Lu. (Injury) Rovella N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lazio: Dele-Bashiru F. (Muscle Injury) Marusic A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lazio	9	8	1	0	22:7	15	25
5	AC Milan	9	5	3	1	18:11	7	18

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 5.86% Lazio: 5.06%

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 28.89%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
07.09.26	Udinese - Lazio	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Lazio - Genoa	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.26	Lazio - Mantova	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.26	Lazio - Ostia Mare	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
06.09.26	Juventus - Milan	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Torino - Milan	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Manchester United - Milan	2:4 ✺
08.08.26	Chelsea - Milan	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
15.03.26	Lazio - Milan	1:0
Coppa Italia
04.12.25	Lazio - Milan	1:0
Italian Serie A
29.11.25	Milan - Lazio	1:0
02.03.25	Milan - Lazio	1:2
31.08.24	Lazio - Milan	2:2
01.03.24	Lazio - Milan	0:1
30.09.23	Milan - Lazio	2:0

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