Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic
Finland	DAZN, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	ANTV, Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kuwait	Shasha
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, Peacock, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Lazio		Milan

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.20	2.05	Watch
	3.80	3.10	2.10
	3.75	3.15	2.05	Watch
	4.06	3.30	2.17
	3.69	3.25	2.21	Watch
	3.95	3.15	2.12
	3.96	3.25	2.08
	3.95	3.25	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (3.29)	3.21 ↑ (3.19)	2.12 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lazio
24.7%

Draw
29.9%

Milan
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.8%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

31.1%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	34.3%	54.3%

Lazio - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Lazio will win (votes: 4 - 11.8%). Milan will win (votes: 18 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 36.1% – 69.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Milan (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Milan (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.69) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Lazio (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Lazio (votes: 2 - 25%). Milan (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Mandas C. (G) 15. Floriani R. 37. Sutalo J. 25. Provstgaard O. 17. Tavares N. 16. Frattesi D. 21. Belahyane R. 24. Taylor K. 22. Cancellieri M. 14. Noslin T. 10. Zaccagni M. (C)	16. Maignan M. (C) 34. Gila M. 5. De Winter K. 31. Pavlovic S. 21. Chukwueze S. 14. Modric L. 12. Rabiot A. 2. Estupinan P. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 70. Cisse A. 9. Ramos G.
Substitutes
33. Bordon R. 32. Cataldi D. 71. Farcomeni V. 80. Gudmundsson A. 11. Isaksen G. 29. Lazzari M. 2. Leite D. 40. Motta E. (G) 23. Pedraza A. 9. Pinamonti A. 28. Przyborek A. 47. Renzetti D. (G) 63. Serra F.	33. Bartesaghi D. 73. Camarda F. 28. Comotto C. 13. Diawara S. 46. Gabbia M. 20. Hutchinson O. 30. Jashari A. 22. Moreira D. 80. Musah Y. 11. Pulisic C. 56. Saelemaekers A. 42. Terracciano F. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 23. Tomori F. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Gattuso G.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Cancellieri M. ⚽, Zaccagni M. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Noslin T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
46', Estupinan P. ↓, Moreira D. ↑,
46', Modric L. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
58', Cancellieri M. ↓, Isaksen G. ↑,
58', Noslin T. ↓, Pinamonti A. ↑,
59', Pulisic C. 🟨,
63', Belahyane R. 🟨,
64', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
65', 2 - 1, Moreira D. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
67', 2 - 2, Moreira D. ⚽, Rabiot A. (A),
74', Taylor K. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
77', Cisse A. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
78', Zaccagni M. 🟨,
84', Sutalo J. ↓, Leite D. ↑,
84', Floriani R. ↓, Lazzari M. ↑,
85', Ramos G. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
86', Gila M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Milan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Milan has had a series of away games.

Milan might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Lazio: Cataldi D. (Groin Injury) Furlanetto A. (Knee Injury) Patric (Ankle Injury) Pellegrini Lu. (Injury) Rovella N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lazio: Dele-Bashiru F. (Muscle Injury) Marusic A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lazio won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lazio won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.71% Lazio: 0.93%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11

Last Results with these Odds

Lazio - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 28.89%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Milan - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.34%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
07.09.26	Udinese - Lazio	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Lazio - Genoa	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.26	Lazio - Mantova	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.26	Lazio - Ostia Mare	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
06.09.26	Juventus - Milan	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Torino - Milan	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Manchester United - Milan	2:4 ✺
08.08.26	Chelsea - Milan	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
15.03.26	Lazio - Milan	1:0
Coppa Italia
04.12.25	Lazio - Milan	1:0
Italian Serie A
29.11.25	Milan - Lazio	1:0
02.03.25	Milan - Lazio	1:2
31.08.24	Lazio - Milan	2:2
01.03.24	Lazio - Milan	0:1
30.09.23	Milan - Lazio	2:0

Upcoming Matches