The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Lexington 32.6%
Draw 27.4%
Sporting Jacksonville 40%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
32.3%
27.8%
39.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.4%
26.9%
38.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
Sporting Jacksonville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Lexington - Sporting Jacksonville Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
24. Campbell R. (G) 19. Johnson H. 66. Falla G. 22. Steigleder R. 16. Elizabeth Brown A. 12. Bourgeois A. 26. Murray K. 18. Mccain A. (C) 35. Griffith S. 15. Barry C. 2. White H.
1. Gerstenberg J. (G) 32. Illig M. 5. Brown G. 24. Phillpotts G. 4. Hennessey A. 3. Boman S. 8. Jones S. (C) 7. Hughes M. 17. DeSmit B. 10. Puerta A. 27. Kenton P.
Substitutes
7. Josephson M. (G) 14. Kopmeyer B. 10. Midgley M. J. 4. Pantuso A. 20. Rajaee D. 28. Rohan C. 11. Weinert M.
18. Descary M. 11. Fernandez A. 23. Fontenot G. 13. Parks K. (G) 21. Swinton M. 9. Teater M. 36. Thistle C.
Coaches
Kimura K.
Balaam S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, Griffith S. ⚽,
16', 2 - 0, Barry C. ⚽, Bourgeois A. (A),
18', 2 - 1, Puerta A. ⚽, Kenton P. (A),
45', 3 - 1, Mccain A. ⚽, Barry C. (A),
45+1', 3 - 2, Kenton P. ⚽, DeSmit B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Murray K. 🟨,
63', Hennessey A. ↓, Fontenot G. ↑,
63', DeSmit B. ↓, Descary M. ↑,
65', Fontenot G. 🟨,
67', Descary M. 🟨,
74', Jones S. ↓, Teater M. ↑,
74', Illig M. ↓, Swinton M. ↑,
77', Bourgeois A. ↓, Weinert M. ↑,
83', Johnson H. ↓, Pantuso A. ↑,
84', Barry C. ↓, Rajaee D. ↑,
85', 3 - 3, Elizabeth Brown A. (Own goal),
90+1', Falla G. ↓, Rohan C. ↑,
90+1', Griffith S. ↓, Midgley M. J. ↑,
Preview
A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - USL Super League Women Playoffs and 2nd in the Promotion - USL Super League Women Playoffs).
Lexington has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Performances by Sporting Jax have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Lexington may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Lexington has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 7:6 (averaging 1.8:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Lexington against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 2:2.5 per game).
Usa
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Campbell R. (G) 
Gerstenberg J. (G) 
Brown G. 
Descary M. 
Fernandez A. 
Kimura K. 
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