Match Info

III Liga - Group II - Round 29

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday


	Lipno Stęszew		Noteć Czarnków

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.58
	2.43	3.6	2.56
	2.45	3.5	2.5	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.5
	2.43	3.32	2.5	Watch
	2.18	3.15	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.88)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	2.58 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lipno Stęszew
38%

Draw
27%

Noteć Czarnków
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

25.3%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

23.8%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lipno Stęszew has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lipno Stęszew's form might have worsened.

Noteć Czarnków has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Noteć Czarnków's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lipno Stęszew than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lipno Stęszew, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noteć Czarnków than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Noteć Czarnków, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lipno Stęszew - Noteć Czarnków Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Jarka D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 9).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lipno Stęszew won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Notec Czarnkow	11	5	1	5	18:15	3	16
18	Lipno Steszew	11	1	2	8	11:23	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Noteć Czarnków - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 27.59%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lipno Stęszew
Polish Division 3 - Group II
25.04.26	Cartusia Kartuzy - Lipno Stęszew	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Lipno Stęszew - Pogoń Szczecin II	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Elana Toruń - Lipno Stęszew	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Lipno Stęszew - Polonia Środa Wielkopolska	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Tłuchowia Tłuchowo - Lipno Stęszew	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWTTL
- MKS Noteć Czarnków
Polish Division 3 - Group II
25.04.26	Noteć Czarnków - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Kluczevia Stargard - Noteć Czarnków	3:0 ✺
15.04.26	Noteć Czarnków - Lech Poznań 2	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Noteć Czarnków - Cartusia Kartuzy	3:2 ✺
04.04.26	Września - Noteć Czarnków	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group II
12.10.25	Noteć Czarnków - Lipno Stęszew	3:1

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