Match Info

World Cup - Qualification

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas (Kaunas)

Referee: Berka O. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	L'Equipe
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Lithuania	LRT Plius
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, TVP 1, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lithuania		Poland

	1	X	2
	11	5	1.3
	10.5	4.95	1.32
	11.6	5.2	1.34
	10.27	4.66	1.33	Watch
	10.8	5.37	1.33	Watch
	5.75	4.1	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.99 ↑ (7)	4.88 ↑ (4)	1.37 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lithuania
9.7%

Draw
19.8%

Poland
70.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.5%

23.6%

62.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lithuania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Poland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Poland's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.4%	5.1%	91.5%

Lithuania - Poland Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Poland (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lithuania (6.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lithuania (3.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Lithuania (1.85) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Poland will win (52 of 57 users predict this - 91.23%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.89% – 98.57%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Poland will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Lithuania (votes: 4 - 12.9%). Poland (votes: 27 - 87.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Svedkauskas T. (G) FK Kauno Zalgiris 17. Sirvys P. Maribor 18. Armalas V. FC Hegelmann 4. Girdvainis E. FK Liepaja 2. Tutyskinas A. Celje 22. Golubickas P. KuPS 11. Sirgedas G. FK Kauno Zalgiris 15. Gineitis G. Torino 13. Lasickas J. Rijeka 10. Cernych F. (C) FK Kauno Zalgiris 14. Slivka V. Sagan Tosu	1. Skorupski L. (G) Bologna 3. Wisniewski P. Spezia 5. Bednarek J. FC Porto 14. Kiwior J. FC Porto 2. Cash M. Aston Villa 17. Slisz B. Atlanta United 10. Zielinski P. Inter 21. Skoras M. Gent 20. Szymanski S. Fenerbahce 9. Lewandowski R. (C) Barcelona 13. Kaminski J. 1. FC Koln
Substitutes
16. Antanavicius D. FC Hegelmann 1. Bartkus D. (G) Al Bukiryah 5. Beneta M. Suduva 20. Jankauskas E. Siauliai FA 8. Kalinauskas T. Kalmar 3. Lekiatas R. FK Kauno Zalgiris 9. Paulauskas G. Michalovce 21. Petkevicius N. Suduva 23. Sarkauskas V. (G) FC Hegelmann 19. Upstas K. FC Hegelmann 6. Vorobjovas M. Istanbulspor AS	12. Grabara K. (G) Wolfsburg 11. Grosicki K. Pogon Szczecin 8. Kapustka B. Legia 4. Kedziora T. PAOK 19. Kozlowski K. Gaziantep 23. Piatek K. Al-Duhail 6. Piotrowski J. Udinese 15. Pyrka A. St. Pauli 7. Swiderski K. Panathinaikos 22. Tobiasz K. (G) Legia 16. Wszolek P. Legia 18. Ziolkowski J. AS Roma
Coaches
Jankauskas E.	Urban J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Szymanski S. ⚽,
44', Slisz B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 0 - 2, Lewandowski R. ⚽, Szymanski S. (A),
66', Golubickas P. ↓, Kalinauskas T. ↑,
66', Sirgedas G. ↓, Vorobjovas M. ↑,
73', Cernych F. ↓, Jankauskas E. ↑,
77', Wisniewski P. 🟨,
77', Slivka V. 🟨,
79', Girdvainis E. 🟨,
82', Szymanski S. ↓, Swiderski K. ↑,
83', Wisniewski P. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
85', Girdvainis E. ↓, Paulauskas G. ↑,
85', Slivka V. ↓, Petkevicius N. ↑,
90', Cash M. ↓, Wszolek P. ↑,
90', Slisz B. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
90+4', Kaminski J. ↓, Grosicki K. ↑,

Preview

In this match, Poland is the obvious favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lithuania
FIFA World Cup
09.10.25	Finland - Lithuania	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Lithuania - Netherlands	2:3 ✺
04.09.25	Lithuania - Malta	1:1 ✺
Friendly
10.06.25	Denmark - Lithuania	5:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
07.06.25	Malta - Lithuania	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLT
- Poland
Friendly
09.10.25	Poland - New Zealand	1:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
07.09.25	Poland - Finland	3:1 ✺
04.09.25	Netherlands - Poland	1:1 ✺
10.06.25	Finland - Poland	2:1 ✺
Friendly
06.06.25	Poland - Moldova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
21.03.25	Poland - Lithuania	1:0
Friendly
12.06.18	Poland - Lithuania	4:0
06.06.16	Poland - Lithuania	0:0
06.06.14	Poland - Lithuania	2:1

Lithuania - Poland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide