Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Llerenense		Puebla de la Calzada

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.1	4
	1.85	3.1	4.05
	1.86	3.31	4.06
	1.85	3.1	4
	1.83	3.24	4.07
	1.84	3.25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.8)	3.18 ↑ (3.1)	4.03 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llerenense
49.2%

Draw
28.4%

Puebla de la Calzada
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

28.6%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

28.6%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Llerenense have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Puebla de la Calzada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Llerenense aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla de la Calzada than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Llerenense - Puebla de la Calzada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
70', 1 - 0, Martinez D. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).

Recent form of Llerenense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Puebla has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Llerenense has had a series of away games.

In this match, Llerenense is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Llerenense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Llerenense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Llerenense	4	3	1	0	3:0	3	10
5	Puebla	5	2	2	1	8:4	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Llerenense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.12.25	Jaraíz - Llerenense	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Villanovense - Llerenense	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Llerenense - Cabeza del Buey	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Jerez - Llerenense	4:1 ✺
09.11.25	Badajoz - Llerenense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLLLT
- Puebla de la Calzada
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.12.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pueblonuevo - Puebla de la Calzada	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Montijo	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Moralo - Puebla de la Calzada	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Diocesano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
01.03.25	Llerenense - Puebla de la Calzada	2:1
19.10.24	Puebla de la Calzada - Llerenense	0:3

Llerenense - Puebla de la Calzada: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide