Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Vitorino Goncalves Dias (VGD) (Londrina)

Referee: Gomes T. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Londrina		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.40	3.20	2.05
	3.45	3.15	2.08	Watch
	3.74	3.3	2.17
	3.56	3.26	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.2	2.13
	3.56	3.3	2.04	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.9)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	2.09 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Londrina
26.5%

Draw
28.8%

Grêmio Novorizontino
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

29.2%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

30.3%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Londrina's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Novorizontino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Londrina will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 2. Nino Paraiba 3. Yago Lincoln 4. Wallace (C) 34. Heron 5. Tarik 7. Vitinho Mota 8. Lucas Marques 20. Joao Vitor 18. Paulinho Moccelin 9. Gilberto	93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 6. Luis Oyama 17. Matheus Bianqui 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 8. Ortiz C. 11. Robson
Substitutes
22. Artur 44. Caio Rodrigues 15. Gabriel Lacerda 32. Joao Tavares 75. Kaue Leonardo 33. Kevyn 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 27. Murilo Sousa 11. Pablo Dyego 28. Rai Nascimento 99. Willian Pottker 12. Zanella (G)	9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 50. Juninho 18. Leo Naldi 24. Lora J. 28. Marlon 30. Nicolas Careca 7. Ronald Barcellos 5. Sander 15. Tavinho 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Rogerio Micale	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
16', 1 - 0, Paulinho Moccelin ⚽, Heron (A),
20', 1 - 1, Romulo ⚽,
23', Ivan Alvarino 🟨,
35', Ortiz C. 🟨,
40', 1 - 2, Robson ⚽, Romulo (A),
45+5', 1 - 3, Reidiney ⚽, Robson (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ortiz C. ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,
46', Heron ↓, Artur ↑,
46', Lucas Marques ↓, Willian Pottker ↑,
60', Vitinho Mota ↓, Rai Nascimento ↑,
60', Gilberto ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
74', Tarik ↓, Murilo Sousa ↑,
76', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
80', 1 - 4, Carlao ⚽, Nicolas Careca (A),
82', Luis Oyama ↓, Juninho ↑,
82', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
83', Paulinho Moccelin 🟨,
89', Romulo ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Novorizontino might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in Londrina: Andre Dhominique (Injury) Thalis (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Arthur Barbosa (Inactive) Hector Bianchi (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Londrina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.5%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Londrina - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
13.07.26	América Mineiro - Londrina	1:1 ✺
04.07.26	Londrina - CRB Maceio	5:0 ✺
25.06.26	Cuiabá - Londrina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LTTWT
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
21.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
17.07.26	Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense	3:0 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Londrina	1:3
17.11.23	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
19.07.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Londrina	3:0
06.08.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Londrina	0:1
21.04.22	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1

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