Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/64-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Lorca Deportiva		Almería

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.2	1.46	Watch
				Watch
	5.4	4.15	1.49
	25.00	6.96	1.12	Watch
	6.21	4.25	1.49	Watch
	6	4.3	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.77 ↑ (4.75)	4.77 ↑ (3.8)	1.41 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
10%

Draw
20.5%

Almería
69.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

24.1%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.6%

23.3%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorca Deportiva's form might have worsened.

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Almería's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorca Deportiva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Almería, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Lorca Deportiva - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: Almería will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Arbol F. (G) 24. Acevedo J. 10. Albiar D. 12. Escobar Hernandez J. 15. Fromsa 5. Galiano H. 22. Ingles T. 16. Kiko 19. Lopez G. 8. Martinez Nicolas Á. 18. Tafalla F.	13. Martinez F. (G) 20. Centelles A. 5. Clua S. 32. Fidel Cedillo Segura P. 8. Gui Guedes 15. Hernandez A. 16. Luna M. 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 24. Robertone L. 9. Thalys
Substitutes
9. Carrasco A. 26. Chourio 4. Erimuya S. 6. Fernandez S. 21. Heredia A. 20. Ibanez W. 31. Isaac G. 1. Juskevicius E. (G) 3. Morros 17. Naranjo J. 30. Tomlinson	11. Arribas S. 18. Bonini F. 22. Chirino D. 29. Dzodic S. 23. Embarba A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 17. Lopy D. 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 3. Munoz A. 19. Soko P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Tafalla F. 🟨,
26', Perovic M. 🟨,
36', Lopez G. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Perovic M. ⚽, Thalys (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ingles T. ↓, Naranjo J. ↑,
46', Tafalla F. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
46', Fromsa ↓, Erimuya S. ↑,
57', Lopez G. ↓, Heredia A. ↑,
64', Perovic M. ↓, Lopy D. ↑,
66', Acevedo J. 🟨,
67', Puigmal A. ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
68', Martinez Nicolas Á. ↓, Ibanez W. ↑,
68', Robertone L. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
74', Gui Guedes ↓, Soko P. ↑,
81', Luna M. ↓, Chirino D. ↑,
85', Lopy D. 🟨,
90', 0 - 2, Embarba A. ⚽, Melamed N. (A),

Preview

Recent performances by Lorca Deportiva have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Almería is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lorca Deportiva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Almería is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.10.25	Linares Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Lorca Deportiva - CD Extremadura	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Recreativo Huelva - Lorca Deportiva	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lorca Deportiva - La Unión	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WTLTL
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
26.10.25	Almería - Castellón	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Córdoba - Almería	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Almería - Zaragoza	4:2 ✺
04.10.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Almería	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTWTW

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