Match Info

LaLiga2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Variety 4
Argentina	DSports 6
Australia	beIN Sports 2
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DSports 6
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Sports MAX 4
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DSports 6
Usa	ESPN Deportes, ESPN+


	Almería		Castellón

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.50	2.75	Watch
	2.25	3.40	2.80
	2.33	3.40	2.75	Watch
	2.41	3.57	2.97
	2.43	3.34	2.93	Watch
	2.25	3.30	2.80
	2.26	3.58	3.02	Watch
	2.06	3.7	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.13)	3.47 ↓ (3.87)	2.88 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
40.9%

Draw
26.8%

Castellón
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

24.4%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

25.1%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

Almería - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Castellón will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Castellón (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castellón (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 29. Dzodic S. 17. Lopy D. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. 24. de la Fuente M.	13. Matthys R. (G) 18. Santiago P. 5. Jimenez A. (C) 3. Brignani F. 4. Sienra A. 21. Calatrava A. 15. Gerenabarrena B. 8. Barri 14. Sanchez R. 19. Jakobsen A. 9. Camara O.
Substitutes
14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 12. Alcazar L. 11. Aurelio D. 29. De Nipoti T. 6. Doue M. 23. Garcia A. 25. Ronaldo 17. Ruiz S. 37. Segura C. 10. Suero I. 2. Tincho 55. Willman M.
Coaches
Rubi	Hernandez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Chirino D. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Embarba A. ⚽, Lopy D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
57', 1 - 1, Calatrava A. ⚽, Gerenabarrena B. (A),
66', Lopy D. 🟨,
67', Leo Baptistao ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
68', Embarba A. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
68', Santiago P. ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Sienra A. ⚽, Ronaldo (A),
74', Rodrigo Ely 🟨,
75', Chirino D. ↓, Luna M. ↑,
75', Lopy D. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Munoz A. ⚽, de la Fuente M. (A),
84', Sienra A. ↓, Alcazar L. ↑,
84', Sanchez R. ↓, Suero I. ↑,
87', Barri 🟨,
90+1', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Dzodic S. ⚽, Melamed N. (A),
90+5', Melamed N. 🟨,
90+7', Gerenabarrena B. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
90+7', Barri ↓, De Nipoti T. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Almería is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

Castellón is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 1.

Almería has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castellón is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Almería: Horta A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Castellón: Cipenga B. (International duty) Mabil A. (International duty) Mellot J. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Almería won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	15:3	12	20
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18

Last Results with these Odds

Almería - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.39%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Castellón - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 31.23%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
06.06.26	Castellón - Almería	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Almería - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Burgos - Almería	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWLLT
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
06.06.26	Castellón - Almería	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Castellón - Eibar	2:1 ✺
24.05.26	Huesca - Castellón	0:1 ✺
15.05.26	Castellón - Cádiz	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Ceuta - Castellón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
06.06.26	Castellón - Almería	1:1
02.04.26	Castellón - Almería	2:0
26.10.25	Almería - Castellón	1:0
18.04.25	Castellón - Almería	4:1
16.09.24	Almería - Castellón	2:5
30.01.21	Almería - Castellón	3:1
28.10.20	Castellón - Almería	1:2

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