Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 - Round 28

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)


	Lorca Deportiva		El Palmar

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.4	8
	1.32	4.5	8.2
	1.34	4.33	8.2
	1.32	4.5	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.32)	4.43 ↓ (4.8)	8.15 ↑ (7.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
68.4%

Draw
20.5%

El Palmar
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

19%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

17.9%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

El Palmar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Palmar than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Lorca Deportiva - El Palmar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
80', 1 - 0, Morete ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lorca Deportiva won 2.

Lorca Deportiva is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

El Palmar has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lorca Deportiva could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lorca Deportiva is indisputable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Lorca Deportiva won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:8 (average 1.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lorca Deportiva won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:4 (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
22.03.25	Plus Ultra - Lorca Deportiva	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Lorca Deportiva - Pulpileño	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Águilas B - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Lorca Deportiva - Santomera	4:1 ✺
15.02.25	UCAM Murcia B - Lorca Deportiva	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTTWW
- EG El Palmar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
23.03.25	El Palmar - Santomera	2:3 ✺
19.03.25	Cieza - El Palmar	4:1 ✺
15.03.25	UCAM Murcia B - El Palmar	2:2 ✺
09.03.25	El Palmar - Real Murcia B	2:5 ✺
23.02.25	El Palmar - Deportivo Marítimo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
17.11.24	El Palmar - Lorca Deportiva	1:0
07.01.24	El Palmar - Lorca Deportiva	1:1
15.01.23	Lorca Deportiva - El Palmar	1:1
18.09.22	El Palmar - Lorca Deportiva	2:3
27.03.22	Lorca Deportiva - El Palmar	4:1
14.11.21	El Palmar - Lorca Deportiva	0:0
06.10.19	Lorca Deportiva - El Palmar	2:2

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