Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 29

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)


	Lorca Deportiva		Linares Deportivo

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.92	2.92
	2.5	3.01	2.95
	2.45	2.96	2.93
	2.5	2.75	2.88
	2.44	2.88	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.05)	2.9 ↓ (3.02)	2.92 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
37.4%

Draw
31.4%

Linares Deportivo
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

30.1%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

30.1%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorca Deportiva's form might have worsened.

Linares Deportivo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Linares Deportivo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorca Deportiva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Linares Deportivo than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Linares Deportivo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lorca Deportiva - Linares Deportivo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 0, Hernandez Garcia J. ⚽,
66', 1 - 1, Menudo ⚽,
85', Garcia D. 🟥,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 9).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lorca Deportiva is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lorca Deportiva won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Lorca Deportiva won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Linares	5	2	1	2	6:7	-1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Linares Deportivo - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 25.48%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
22.03.26	Melilla - Lorca Deportiva	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Lorca Deportiva - Estepona	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Lorca Deportiva - Xerez Deportivo	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	CD Extremadura - Lorca Deportiva	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Lorca Deportiva - Antoniano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLW
- Linares Deportivo
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
22.03.26	Linares Deportivo - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	UCAM Murcia - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
11.03.26	Linares Deportivo - La Unión	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Linares Deportivo - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Malaga B - Linares Deportivo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.10.25	Linares Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	1:3
21.03.21	Linares Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	1:0
10.01.21	Lorca Deportiva - Linares Deportivo	0:3

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