Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 28

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Television Melilla


	Melilla		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.1	3.5
	1.85	3.1	3.95
	2.03	3.14	3.85
	1.82	3.44	4.03	Watch
	1.96	3.3	3.91
	2.1	3.1	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.14)	3.2 (3.2)	3.76 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
46.9%

Draw
28.7%

Lorca Deportiva
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

28.6%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Melilla - Lorca Deportiva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Claverias A. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 1, Naranjo J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
84', 2 - 1, Iglesias J. ⚽,
90+6', Fernandez S. 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Melilla is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lorca Deportiva's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melilla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Melilla will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Melilla won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
18.03.26	CD Extremadura - Melilla	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Xerez Deportivo - Melilla	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Melilla - Antoniano	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	UCAM Murcia - Melilla	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Melilla - Real Jaén	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
15.03.26	Lorca Deportiva - Estepona	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Lorca Deportiva - Xerez Deportivo	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	CD Extremadura - Lorca Deportiva	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Lorca Deportiva - Antoniano	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Malaga B - Lorca Deportiva	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
23.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Melilla	1:0
18.02.18	Melilla - Lorca Deportiva	1:2
01.10.17	Lorca Deportiva - Melilla	0:0

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