Match Info

Primera C - Round 9

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday


	Lugano		Leandro N. Alem

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.78	3.15
	2.38	2.7	3.09
	2.59	2.74	2.98	Watch
	2.45	2.63	3
	2.37	2.74	3.18
	1.92	3.15	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (1.92)	2.79 ↓ (3.15)	3.18 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
38.9%

Draw
32.6%

Leandro N. Alem
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

28.6%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

24.1%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugano's form might have worsened.

Leandro N. Alem has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leandro N. Alem than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Lugano - Leandro N. Alem Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
52', 1 - 0, Soria R. ⚽,
58', 2 - 0, Urruchua G. ⚽,
61', 2 - 1, Abal E. ⚽,
68', Quiroga P. 🟥,
90+1', 2 - 2, Cristeff M. A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 12).

Lugano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leandro N. Alem has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Lugano has had a series of away games.

Recently, Leandro N. Alem has had a series of home games.

Lugano could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
18.04.26	Club Luján - Lugano	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Victoriano Arenas - Lugano	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Sportivo Barracas - Lugano	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	Lugano - Defensores de Cambaceres	1:2 ✺
30.03.26	Centro Español - Lugano	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TTLLW
- Leandro N. Alem
Argentinian Primera C
19.04.26	Leandro N. Alem - Central Ballester	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Leandro N. Alem - Defensores de Cambaceres	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Juventud Unida de San Miguel - Leandro N. Alem	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Leandro N. Alem - Sacachispas	0:5 ✺
21.03.26	Leandro N. Alem - Cañuelas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
24.08.25	Leandro N. Alem - Lugano	0:0
11.05.25	Lugano - Leandro N. Alem	0:2
06.07.24	Leandro N. Alem - Lugano	2:0
05.02.24	Lugano - Leandro N. Alem	0:1

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