Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 1

Date: 27 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)


	Lugo		Teruel

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.25	4.5
	1.75	3.2	4.5
	1.71	3.51	5.15
	1.69	3.44	5.2
	1.67	3.45	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.5)	3.37 ↓ (3.4)	4.81 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
53.8%

Draw
27.2%

Teruel
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

26.4%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

26.8%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.

Teruel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Teruel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Teruel than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Teruel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lugo - Teruel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz L. (G) 17. Torrado C. 4. Perez G. 14. Morgado C. 3. Vazquez J. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Aguza S. 15. Narro V. 7. Ledesma L. 9. Quintana Nacho 19. Fuentes A.	1. Konate T. (G) 15. Sanchis V. 2. Carmona F. 5. Gaixas A. 3. Hualde J. 7. Ahn June Hyuk 8. Tena 14. Castillo N. 10. Aparicio D. 9. Buenacasa A. 18. Gabarre A.
Substitutes
. Antonetti L. . Bernardo . Castrin A. . Gonzalez J. . Lizancos A. . Martinez C. J. . Ojeda T. . Roson D. . Taboada E. . Tabuaco G. (G) . Thiam I. . Vazquez B. (G)	30. Alastuey J. 11. Borja M. 17. Correia R. 23. Pascual A. 13. Rodriguez Heredia N. (G) 6. Romero B. 19. Villanueva D.

Preview

Recent matches Lugo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Teruel is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Teruel could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lugo is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Club Friendly
19.08.23	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:0 ✺
15.08.23	Lugo - Celta de Vigo B	1:0 ✺
11.08.23	Arenteiro - Lugo	1:1 ✺
05.08.23	Lugo - Compostela	1:1 ✺
02.08.23	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWTTW
- CD Teruel
Club Friendly
20.08.23	Teruel - Utebo	1:0 ✺
12.08.23	Teruel - Castellón	1:1 ✺
05.08.23	Teruel - Valencia B	1:0 ✺
29.07.23	Lleida - Teruel	0:1 ✺
26.07.23	Huesca - Teruel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTWWL

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