Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 28

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Lugo		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	5
	1.7	3.54	4.98
	15.47	7.80	1.13	Watch
	1.7	3.25	4.33
	1.8	3.22	4.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (2.02)	4.22 ↑ (3.09)	3.95 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lugo
31.4%

Draw
33.2%

Real Madrid Castilla
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

29.5%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

29.1%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid Castilla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (G) 20. Lopez I. 3. Garriz I. 16. Jose Amo 6. Haro P. 15. Reniero N. 8. Balboa A. 9. Celorio N. 14. Presa K. 5. Gallar A. 25. Sanchez B.	1. Fran (G) 17. Fortea J. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 5. Serrano M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 6. Perea C. 28. Martin R. 20. Fortuny P. 47. Ciria A. 29. Ortega J.
Substitutes
10. Alba T. 18. Costa G. 24. Gaya J. 23. Junior L. 12. Perera A. 13. Piedra I. (G) 2. Rodriguez Y. 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P. 19. Unzueta I.	11. Iglesias Lois B. 2. Jimenez D. 39. Leiva A. 34. Lezcano A. 38. Martinez B. 30. Mesonero D. 46. Rezola M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 🟨,
27', Perea C. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Ortega J. ⚽,
31', 0 - 2, Ciria A. ⚽,
35', Presa K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Celorio N. ↓, Unzueta I. ↑,
53', Presa K. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
53', Sanchez B. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
57', 🟨,
60', 0 - 3, Fortuny P. ⚽,
65', Gallar A. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
65', Haro P. ↓, Perera A. ↑,
68', Balboa A. 🟨,
72', 0 - 4, Ortega J. ⚽,
82', Jimenez D. 🟨,
86', Reniero N. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 2.

Lugo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Madrid Castilla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lugo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 3.61 are the expected chance of winning is 25.26%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.03.26	Tenerife - Lugo	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Pontevedra - Lugo	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TWTWT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.03.26	Arenteiro - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Real Avilés - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Lugo	2:1
Club Friendly
02.08.23	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0
03.08.19	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:0
Spanish LaLiga2
09.03.14	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1
06.10.13	Real Madrid Castilla - Lugo	2:0
18.05.13	Real Madrid Castilla - Lugo	3:1
14.12.12	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2

Upcoming Matches