Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés)

Referee: Cotero M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Real Avilés		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	2.75
	2.25	3.10	2.75
	2.28	3.05	2.85
	2.38	3.20	2.91
	2.26	3.28	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.10	2.85
	2.41	3.25	2.88
	2.25	3.10	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.38)	3.15 ↓ (3.23)	2.86 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
39.4%

Draw
28.9%

Lugo
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

28.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Real Avilés - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 18. Rodriguez Y. 4. Artetxe M. 17. Prendes M. 20. Osky 19. Poquet N. (C) 5. Mayo S. 8. Abelenda B. 7. Montes C. 9. Santamaria A. 14. Cayarga B.	1. Martinez M. (C) 19. Lucero R. 4. Garriz I. 5. Moreno P. 3. Haro P. 15. Parrilla P. 20. Ulloa A. 16. Palma A. 6. Presa K. 17. Chiqui 11. Dauda M.
Substitutes
26. Bernabeu R. 23. Carmona A. 6. Doncel P. 24. Franco S. 27. Liduena Alonso D. 2. Mahicas J. 11. Munoz I. 10. Neskes 21. Sillero J. 13. Suarez Coronas Lastra M. (G)	21. Berzal G. 13. Candal J. (G) 9. Costa A. 25. Embadje F. (G) 14. Gallar A. 10. Godoy A. 18. Hermoso K. 22. Munoz M. 23. Pascual H. 8. Perera A. 24. Perez S. 2. Sanchez Martinez A. N.
Coaches
Yago Iglesias	Borja Fernandez

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Santamaria A. ⚽, Mayo S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Haro P. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
52', Garriz I. ↓, Hermoso K. ↑,
57', Poquet N. ↓, Doncel P. ↑,
65', Dauda M. ↓, Gallar A. ↑,
65', Presa K. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Costa A. ⚽, Chiqui (A),
73', Cayarga B. ↓, Mahicas J. ↑,
73', Santamaria A. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
75', Abelenda B. ↓, Neskes ↑,
80', Rodriguez Y. ↓, Sillero J. ↑,
84', Chiqui ↓, Godoy A. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 2, Godoy A. ⚽, Gallar A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 13th and 2nd in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

In recent outings, Real Avilés has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lugo is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Real Avilés has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:7 (averaging 0.5:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real Avilés against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 2:7 goals (averaging 0.7:2.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Lugo - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.32%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.26	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Coria - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTWLL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.09.26	Lugo - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Zamora - Lugo	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lugo - Coria	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2
06.09.25	Lugo - Real Avilés	0:0
Club Friendly
19.08.23	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:0
24.07.19	Real Avilés - Lugo	0:5

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