Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Espiñedo (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Arenteiro		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.62	2.98	2.68
	2.75	2.87	2.8	Watch
	2.6	2.75	2.63
	2.6	2.85	2.67
	2.71	2.8	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.72)	2.86 ↑ (2.82)	2.67 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenteiro
34.4%

Draw
31.7%

Lugo
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+1%)

Arenteiro - Lugo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvin (G) 19. Alpha M. 4. Falcon E. 3. Lohr L. 15. Moreno D. 7. Ferreiro D. (C) 25. Bastida A. 6. Val B. 11. Cuellar J. 18. Mingo V. 8. Gonzalez D.	13. Piedra I. (G) 24. Gaya J. 3. Garriz I. 16. Jose Amo 17. Caballo D. 14. Presa K. (C) 10. Alba T. 8. Balboa A. 7. Gonzalez J. 19. Unzueta I. 11. Pastrana V.
Substitutes
10. De Camargo W. 13. Garcia D. (G) 44. Gimenez F. 16. Guerrero J. 21. Llacer L. 2. Moya P. 12. Ochoa M. 23. Romera D. 14. Safrai 22. Sanchez J.	9. Celorio N. 29. Garcia H. 23. Junior L. 1. Martinez M. (G) 33. Munoz M. 6. Nicholas N. 15. Reniero N. 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', Ferreiro D. 🟨,
37', Jose Amo 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Balboa A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Unzueta I. 🟨,
55', Caballo D. ↓, Nicholas N. ↑,
55', Alba T. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
64', Gonzalez D. ↓, De Camargo W. ↑,
64', Cuellar J. ↓, Safrai ↑,
64', Alpha M. ↓, Llacer L. ↑,
66', 🟨,
66', De Camargo W. 🟨,
67', De Camargo W. 🟨,
72', 0 - 2, Pastrana V. ⚽,
74', Val B. ↓, Moya P. ↑,
74', Ferreiro D. ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
76', Gonzalez J. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
80', Moya P. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arenteiro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arenteiro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Arenteiro - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:3 ✺
07.12.25	Arenteiro - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Tenerife - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWWWL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.01.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Osasuna B - Lugo	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Lugo - Tenerife	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.04.25	Arenteiro - Lugo	2:1
17.11.24	Lugo - Arenteiro	1:1
05.05.24	Arenteiro - Lugo	1:3
25.11.23	Lugo - Arenteiro	0:1
Club Friendly
11.08.23	Arenteiro - Lugo	1:1

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