Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 5

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Costa Teixeira Afonso J. P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lusitânia		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	3.60
	2.00	3.10	3.30
	2.10	3.10	3.10
	2.06	3.48	3.79
	2.17	3.31	3.31	Watch
	2.00	3.40	3.75
	1.98	3.37	3.73
	1.99	3.20	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.33)	3.28 ↑ (3.05)	3.51 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
45.5%

Draw
28.2%

AVS
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.3%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

29.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lusitânia's performance.

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AVS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lusitânia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AVS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lusitânia - AVS Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Lusitânia (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Ribeiro M. (C) 24. Ricardinho 22. Faria B. 4. Collard D. 52. Machado F. 12. Arsenio 20. Paulo D. 27. Fabinho 19. Mandiang S. 17. Santos J. 21. Paulite	1. Rebollo D. (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 6. Ponck 3. Rosic L. 12. Rivas D. 78. Andrey 88. Almeida F. 70. Roni (C) 10. Keita A. 9. Rodrigo Pinho 30. Talles Wander
Substitutes
7. Borges M. 60. Danny 90. da Silva Moreira I. A. 42. Guilherme 80. Manel 6. Montez A. 16. Rocha L. 9. Silva J. 5. Silverio 1. Souza G. (G) 11. Tablante M. 88. Teixeira M.	26. Conde B. 4. Davi Schuindt 77. Guga 80. Hiago Santos 8. Meireles J. 7. Neiva G. 49. Pimentel P. 25. Raul Steffens (G) 28. Sousa A.
Coaches
Silva R.	Fonseca S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Rosic L. 🟨,
21', Ponck 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Collard D. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Rodrigo Pinho ⚽, Roni (A),
35', Roni 🟨,
45+2', Fabinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Andrey ↓, Hiago Santos ↑,
61', Rosic L. ↓, Conde B. ↑,
61', Keita A. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
62', Paulite ↓, Borges M. ↑,
63', Fabinho ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
72', Santos J. 🟨,
72', Santos J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
72', Mandiang S. ↓, Danny ↑,
78', Roni ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
81', Danny 🟨,
82', Rivas D. 🟨,
84', Arsenio ↓, Montez A. ↑,
86', Talles Wander ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Borges M. ⚽,

Preview

Lusitânia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, AVS has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lusitânia might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
12	AFS	6	1	3	2	6:6	0	6

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.45%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
29.08.26	Académica Coimbra - Lusitânia	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Lusitânia - Torreense	2:2 ✺
16.08.26	Amarante - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
10.08.26	Lusitânia - Porto B	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Paredes - Lusitânia	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTWWL
- AVS Futebol SAD
Portuguese Liga 2
30.08.26	AVS - Feirense	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Chaves - AVS	2:2 ✺
17.08.26	Felgueiras - AVS	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	AVS - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	AVS - Trofense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTTLT

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