Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 4

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Lax S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Málaga		Granada

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.5	Watch
	1.9	3.1	3.9
	2.15	3.05	3.4	Watch
	2.33	3.19	3.53
	2.89	2.14	3.97	Watch
	2	3.2	3.8
	2.23	3.14	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.24)	2.97 ↓ (3.35)	3.66 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
42.5%

Draw
31.7%

Granada
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.9%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.1%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	10.5%	10.5%

Málaga - Granada Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 15 - 78.9%). Granada will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 60.6% – 97.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Granada (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Málaga (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Málaga will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Granada (votes: 4 - 23.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 20. Montero J. 18. Sanchez D. 10. Larrubia D. 8. Juanpe 23. Merino I. 11. Munoz J. 9. Chupe 37. Rodriguez R.	1. Zidane L. (G) 2. Casadesus P. 5. Lama M. 24. Williams L. 7. Sola A. 28. Oppong O. 21. Saenz P. 20. Ruiz S. (C) 8. Aleman P. 17. Faye S. 10. Bouldini M.
Substitutes
5. Brasanac D. 12. Dotor C. 2. Gabilondo J. 4. Galilea E. 14. Garcia V. 17. Jauregi E. 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 22. Lorenzo D. 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A.	4. Alcaraz R. 11. Arnaiz J. M. 33. Cortes S. 29. Fall S. 34. Garcia I. (G) 3. Hormigo D. 19. Pascual J. 26. Rodelas S. 14. Trigueros M.
Coaches
Pellicer S.	Rojo Martin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Chupe ⚽, Juanpe (A),
20', 2 - 0, Chupe ⚽, Larrubia D. (A),
30', 2 - 1, Casadesus P. ⚽, Bouldini M. (A),
45+1', Bouldini M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Puga C. ↓, Gabilondo J. ↑,
46', Bouldini M. ↓, Pascual J. ↑,
51', 2 - 2, Aleman P. ⚽,
61', Munoz J. ↓, Lobete J. ↑,
61', Rodriguez R. ↓, Dotor C. ↑,
64', Montero J. 🟨,
68', Juanpe 🟨,
69', Saenz P. ↓, Arnaiz J. M. ↑,
69', Ruiz S. ↓, Alcaraz R. ↑,
73', Sola A. ↓, Hormigo D. ↑,
78', Larrubia D. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
83', Casadesus P. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
85', Chupe ↓, Jauregi E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 1.

Málaga is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Granada's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Granada may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Granada has had a series of home games.

Málaga is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Málaga: Diarra M. (Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Nino A. (International duty) Pastor A. (Injury)

There will not play in Granada: Astralaga A. (International duty) Diallo B. (Injury) Haro P. (Red Card) Hongla M. (International duty)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Málaga - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
31.08.25	Las Palmas - Málaga	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Málaga - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Málaga - Eibar	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Málaga - Betis	3:1 ✺
02.08.25	Oxford United - Málaga	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.6 WWTWL
- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
31.08.25	Granada - Mirandés	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Eibar - Granada	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Granada - Deportivo A Coruña	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Granada - Al Ain	0:3 ✺
30.07.25	Granada - Al-Rayyan	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLL?

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
03.05.25	Málaga - Granada	1:0
20.09.24	Granada - Málaga	2:2
27.02.23	Granada - Málaga	1:0
08.12.22	Málaga - Granada	1:1
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Málaga - Granada	1:1
06.08.21	Granada - Málaga	3:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.01.21	Málaga - Granada	1:2

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