Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 - Round 17

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Móstoles URJC		Atlético Madrid C

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.05	2.98
	2.25	3.22	3.01
	2.25	3	3
	2.25	3.08	3.01
	2.33	2.75	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.91)	3.02 ↓ (3.26)	3.05 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Móstoles URJC
40.1%

Draw
30.1%

Atlético Madrid C
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

27.8%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

27.4%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Móstoles URJC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Móstoles URJC's form might have worsened.

Atlético Madrid C has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Madrid C's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Móstoles URJC than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Móstoles URJC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid C than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Madrid C, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Móstoles URJC - Atlético Madrid C Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
67', 2 - 0, ⚽,
67', 2 - 1, ⚽,
85', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 7 (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Móstoles will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	CD Mostoles	5	3	2	0	6:2	4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Móstoles URJC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
04.01.26	Siello - Móstoles URJC	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Móstoles URJC - Pozuelo de Alarcón	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Leganés B - Móstoles URJC	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Móstoles URJC - Trival Valderas	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Torrejón - Móstoles URJC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTLWW
- Atlético Madrid C
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
04.01.26	Atlético Madrid C - San Sebastian Reyes B	5:1 ✺
21.12.25	Racing Madrid - Atlético Madrid C	2:6 ✺
14.12.25	Atlético Madrid C - Las Rozas	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Unión Adarve - Atlético Madrid C	3:2 ✺
23.11.25	Atlético Madrid C - Villaverde San Andrés	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWTLW

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