Match Info

Ligat ha'Al - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Yud-Alef Stadium (Ashdod)

Referee: Levi S. (Isr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	Sport 3


	MS Ashdod		Hapoel Tel Aviv

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.75	1.57	Watch
	4.45	3.95	1.62
	4.71	4.18	1.65
	30.00	15.34	1.00	Watch
	4.77	4.1	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.69 ↑ (2.86)	6.26 ↑ (3.46)	1.5 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MS Ashdod
11.1%

Draw
17.2%

Hapoel Tel Aviv
71.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

26.6%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

25.4%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MS Ashdod has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that MS Ashdod's form might have worsened.

Hapoel Tel Aviv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+30.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hapoel Tel Aviv's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MS Ashdod than the current prediction. (+19.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for MS Ashdod, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hapoel Tel Aviv than the current prediction. (-28.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hapoel Tel Aviv, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

MS Ashdod - Hapoel Tel Aviv Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ashdod will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Hapoel Tel Aviv will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hapoel Tel Aviv: 64.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Hapoel Tel Aviv (2.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hapoel Tel Aviv will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ashdod (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Hapoel Tel Aviv (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Niemczycki K. (G) 4. Awany T. (C) 3. Diakite I. 16. Yashilirmak M. 5. Bitton N. 10. Tamam I. 8. Gordana R. 26. Kimvuidi K. 29. Batoum J. 14. Muche N. 13. Ansah E.	22. Tzur A. (G) 21. Piven S. 5. Mayembo F. 4. Chico (C) 16. Leidner D. 98. Falcao 6. Kraev A. 11. Turiel S. 15. Alkokin R. 10. Silva X. 44. Dapaah D.
Substitutes
77. Coll I. 7. Dabush N. 45. Dasa O. 17. Farada L. 21. Gethon E. 9. Harush S. 11. Levi A. 98. Nachmani S.	51. Altman O. 1. Benyamini D. (G) 8. Binyamin R. 27. Buskila M. 14. Kancepolsky E. Y. 23. Lemkin A. 19. Mahamid A. 3. Morgan Z. 72. Nassar Y.
Coaches
Silvas H.	Barda E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 5)
1', 1 - 0, Kimvuidi K. ⚽, Ansah E. (A),
7', 1 - 1, Dapaah D. ⚽, Turiel S. (A),
13', 1 - 2, Alkokin R. ⚽, Turiel S. (A),
29', 1 - 3, Kimvuidi K. (Own goal),
35', 1 - 4, Alkokin R. ⚽,
42', 1 - 5, Turiel S. ⚽, Alkokin R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Farada L. ↓, Harush S. ↑,
46', Muche N. ↓, Levi A. ↑,
48', 2 - 5, Batoum J. ⚽, Ansah E. (A),
60', Turiel S. ↓, Buskila M. ↑,
62', Gordana R. 🟨,
65', Kraev A. 🟨,
68', Mayembo F. 🟨,
70', Awany T. 🟨,
72', Dapaah D. ↓, Altman O. ↑,
72', Alkokin R. ↓, Lemkin A. ↑,
72', Kraev A. ↓, Kancepolsky E. Y. ↑,
77', 2 - 6, Chico ⚽, Buskila M. (A),
79', Silva X. ↓, Binyamin R. ↑,
80', Kimvuidi K. ↓, Dabush N. ↑,
80', Batoum J. ↓, Nachmani S. ↑,
82', Gordana R. ↓, Dasa O. ↑,
83', Ansah E. 🟨,
90', Chico 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ashdod won 3.

Recent performances by Ashdod have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hapoel Tel Aviv is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Hapoel Tel Aviv is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Ashdod: Hakmon S. (Heart Problems)

There are questionable in Ashdod: Ben Zaken T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ashdod won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ashdod won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MS Ashdod
Israeli Ligat haAl
15.09.25	Maccabi Haifa - MS Ashdod	5:1 ✺
30.08.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin	1:2 ✺
23.08.25	Hapoel Jerusalem - MS Ashdod	1:2 ✺
Israeli Toto Cup
16.08.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin	3:2 penalties ✺
09.08.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWL
- Hapoel Tel Aviv
Israeli Ligat haAl
15.09.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Beitar Jerusalem	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Maccabi Bnei Raina - Hapoel Tel Aviv	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Ironi Kiryat Shmona	2:1 ✺
Israeli Toto Cup
16.08.25	Hapoel Beer Sheva - Hapoel Tel Aviv	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.4 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Israeli Toto Cup
09.08.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	2:0
Israeli Ligat haAl
11.05.24	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	0:2
03.02.24	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	3:1
05.12.23	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Tel Aviv	2:1
Israeli Toto Cup
08.08.23	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Tel Aviv	1:0
Israeli Ligat haAl
25.02.23	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	1:2
05.11.22	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Tel Aviv	1:0

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