Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Conselheiro Galvao (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Madureira		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	11.5	6	1.24
	11	5.7	1.23
	20.5	5.51	1.18
	14.91	5.36	1.23
	13	4.8	1.2
	14.8	5.15	1.19
	7	4.5	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.24 ↑ (11)	5.29 ↓ (5.5)	1.22 ↓ (1.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madureira
7%

Draw
17.5%

Flamengo
75.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.4%

16.8%

74.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madureira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Madureira - Flamengo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Flamengo (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Neguete (G) 2. Caua Coutinho 23. Marcao 4. Jean 6. Matheus Juliao 5. Adriano 19. Rodrigo Lindoso (C) 11. Vinicius Balotelli 10. Wallace Camilo 7. Jaco 9. Geovane Maranhao	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 44. Vitao 3. Leo Ortiz 26. Alex Sandro (C) 18. de la Cruz N. 52. Evertton Araujo 15. Carrascal J. 20. Lucas Paqueta 11. Everton 9. Pedro
Substitutes
17. Arthur 22. Celsinho 13. Daniel Felipe 21. Everton 24. Fashanu M. 14. Fuba 8. Hericles 18. Isaias 16. Julio Cesar 20. Santiago J. 15. Wendel Lessa 31. Yan (G)	6. Ayrton Lucas 87. Daniel Carvalho 51. Daniel Sales 13. Danilo 81. Douglas Telles 7. Luiz Araujo 75. Mariano L. 19. Plata G. 1. Rossi A. (G) 16. Samuel Lino 2. Varela G. 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Andrade T.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
5', 0 - 1, Lucas Paqueta ⚽, Carrascal J. (A),
8', Neguete 🟨,
11', Matheus Juliao ↓, Julio Cesar ↑,
22', 0 - 2, Lucas Paqueta ⚽, Carrascal J. (A),
30', Wallace Camilo 🟥,
33', 0 - 3, Jean (Own goal),
45', 0 - 4, Pedro ⚽,
45+3', Evertton Araujo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Geovane Maranhao ↓, Fashanu M. ↑,
46', Jaco ↓, Fuba ↑,
48', 0 - 5, Pedro ⚽, Emerson Royal (A),
49', 0 - 6, Pedro ⚽,
57', de la Cruz N. ↓, Mariano L. ↑,
57', Carrascal J. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
62', Adriano ↓, Wendel Lessa ↑,
67', 0 - 7, Pedro ⚽,
68', Everton ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
77', Rodrigo Lindoso ↓, Arthur ↑,
85', Leo Ortiz ↓, Daniel Carvalho ↑,
85', Evertton Araujo ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
88', 0 - 8, Samuel Lino ⚽, Pedro (A),

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Madureira won 0.

Madureira is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Flamengo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Flamengo is the clear favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Madureira won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 4:30. (average 0.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Madureira won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:11. (average 0.7:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madureira EC
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Madureira - ABC	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Flamengo - Madureira	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.02.26	Baré - Madureira	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
13.02.26	Madureira - Boavista	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Volta Redonda - Madureira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWT
- Flamengo RJ
Recopa Sudamericana
26.02.26	Flamengo - Lanús	2:3 ET ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Flamengo - Madureira	3:0 ✺
Recopa Sudamericana
19.02.26	Lanús - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Flamengo - Madureira	3:0
16.01.25	Madureira - Flamengo	1:1
02.03.24	Flamengo - Madureira	3:0
18.01.23	Madureira - Flamengo	0:0
16.02.22	Madureira - Flamengo	1:2
05.04.21	Madureira - Flamengo	1:5
08.02.20	Flamengo - Madureira	2:0

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