Match Info

Recopa Sudamericana - Final

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	11:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	20:30	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	21:30	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	02:30	Max Sport 4
Canada	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	21:30	Disney+
Colombia	19:30	Disney+
Ecuador	19:30	ESPN 2
Greece	02:30	ERT 2, ERT Sports 2
Israel	02:30	Sport 3
Mexico	18:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	01:30	Canal+, ESPN
New Zealand	13:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Paraguay	21:30	ESPN 2
Peru	19:30	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Portugal	00:30	Sport TV1
Russia	03:30	Okko Sport
Spain	01:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Flamengo		Lanús

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	12	Watch
	1.32	4.25	11	Watch
	1.34	4.8	12.29
	1.33	4.72	12.03
	1.3	4.2	10	Watch
	1.33	4.6	10.1	Watch
	1.48	3.5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.46)	4.44 ↑ (3.79)	11.06 ↑ (9.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
70.2%

Draw
21.2%

Lanús
8.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.7%

24.9%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

23.6%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Flamengo's performance.

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Flamengo - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Lanús will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Flamengo (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 52. Evertton Araujo 15. Carrascal J. 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C) 16. Samuel Lino 19. Plata G.	26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 23. Carrera R. 19. Castillo R.
Substitutes
26. Alex Sandro 27. Bruno Henrique 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 22. Emerson Royal 11. Everton 21. Jorginho 3. Leo Ortiz 20. Lucas Paqueta 7. Luiz Araujo 9. Pedro 44. Vitao	25. Aquino D. 77. Besozzi L. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 35. De Jesus R. 37. De Martis T. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 16. Sepulveda M. 8. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Filipe Luis	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Castillo R. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, de Arrascaeta G. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
58', Carrascal J. ↓, Pedro ↑,
64', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
64', Plata G. ↓, Lucas Paqueta ↑,
64', Evertton Araujo ↓, Jorginho ↑,
69', Carrera R. 🟨,
69', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
70', Carrera R. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
75', Varela G. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Jorginho (Penalty Awarded),
88', Pulgar E. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 2)
92', Danilo ↓, Leo Ortiz ↑,
96', Cardozo A. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
96', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
105', Guidara T. 🟨,
105', Guidara T. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
118', 2 - 2, Canale Dominguez J. ⚽, Sepulveda M. (A),
120+1', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
120+2', 2 - 3, Aquino D. ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.

Flamengo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lanús has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is the clear favorite.

We predict that Flamengo will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Flamengo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 64.66%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Flamengo - Madureira	3:0 ✺
Recopa Sudamericana
19.02.26	Lanús - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Flamengo - Sampaio Corrêa FE	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWWW
- CA Lanús
Recopa Sudamericana
19.02.26	Lanús - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.02.26	Independiente - Lanús	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Lanús - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	2:2 ✺
29.01.26	Lanús - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Recopa Sudamericana
19.02.26	Lanús - Flamengo	1:0
Copa Libertadores
12.04.12	Flamengo - Lanús	3:0

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