The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Vasco da Gama 11.3%
Draw 22.4%
Flamengo 66.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.1%
24.8%
53.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.6%
24.2%
54.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vasco da Gama's form might have worsened.
Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Flamengo's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-11.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flamengo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
44.4%
0%
55.6%
Vasco da Gama - Flamengo Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Flamengo will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 23.1% – 88.1%.
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 8. Jair 11. Coutinho 25. Hugo Moura 77. Rayan 99. Vegetti P. 17. Moreira N.
1. Rossi A. (G) 43. Wesley Franca 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 18. de la Cruz N. 8. Gerson (C) 10. de Arrascaeta G. 30. Michael 27. Bruno Henrique
Substitutes
90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 44. Luiz Gustavo 30. Lukas Zuccarello 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J. 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis
29. Allan 13. Danilo 11. Everton 52. Evertton Araujo 61. Joao Victor 23. Juninho 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 9. Pedro 50. Plata G. 2. Varela G.
Coaches
Fabio Carille
Filipe Luis
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Vegetti P. 🟨,
60', Bruno Henrique ↓, Plata G. ↑,
61', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Varela G. ↑,
61', Michael ↓, Everton ↑,
66', Moreira N. ↓, Garre B. ↑,
69', Gerson ↓, Pedro ↑,
77', Rayan ↓, Lukas Zuccarello ↑,
77', Coutinho ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
81', Leo Ortiz 🟨,
84', de la Cruz N. ↓, Allan ↑,
88', Hugo Moura ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
88', Jair ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
Preview
Last 5 head-to-head matches Vasco won 0.
Recent matches Vasco is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Flamengo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Vasco could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Flamengo is certain favorite.
There will not play in Vasco: Coutinho
(Rest)
David
(Knee Injury)
Guilherme Estrella
(Knee Injury)
Lemos M.
(Injury)
Tche Tche
(Personal Reasons)
There will not play in Flamengo: Vina M.
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Vasco: Payet D.
(Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Vasco won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 15 matches and goals 18:41 (average 0.9:2.1).
Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 5:22 (average 0.6:2.4).
Last Results with these Odds
Flamengo - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.1%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
China
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Leo Jardim (G) 
Vegetti P. 
Moreira N. 
Pulgar E. 
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Augusto L. 
Plata G. 
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