Match Info

BRAZIL: CAMPEONATO CARIOCA - TACA GUANABARA - ROUND 8

Date: 11 February 2023, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Conselheiro Galvao (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...


	Madureira		Resende

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.4
	2.25	3	3.3
	2.15	2.95	3.25
	2.26	2.97	3.49
	2.22	3.04	3.38
	2.21	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.27)	2.99 ↑ (2.75)	3.34 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madureira
41.7%

Draw
30.7%

Resende
27.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40%

33.1%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

29.7%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madureira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Resende has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madureira than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Madureira that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Resende than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Madureira - Resende Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Madureira won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Resende could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Madureira will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Madureira won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Madureira won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madureira EC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
05.02.23	Bangu - Madureira	1:0 ✺
02.02.23	Madureira - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
29.01.23	Boavista - Madureira	0:2 ✺
26.01.23	Botafogo RJ - Madureira	2:0 ✺
22.01.23	Madureira - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTWLL
- Resende FC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
02.02.23	Vasco da Gama - Resende	5:0 ✺
29.01.23	Resende - Portuguesa RJ	0:0 ✺
25.01.23	Volta Redonda - Resende	5:1 ✺
22.01.23	Resende - Boavista	2:1 ✺
18.01.23	Bangu - Resende	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
27.01.22	Madureira - Resende	1:0
13.03.21	Madureira - Resende	0:0
28.06.20	Madureira - Resende	0:2
16.03.19	Resende - Madureira	0:2
12.03.17	Madureira - Resende	1:1
06.03.16	Resende - Madureira	0:0
11.02.15	Madureira - Resende	3:0

Madureira - Resende

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Madureira - Resende Predictions

Preview

Form

Latest Head to Head

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