Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 5

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Conselheiro Galvao (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Fernandes J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Madureira		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	8.25	4.1	1.42
	7.7	4.6	1.38
	7.93	4.43	1.4	Watch
	15	5	1.22
	8.25	4.05	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.43 ↓ (9.75)	4.44 ↑ (3.5)	1.36 ↓ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madureira
10%

Draw
21.2%

Fluminense
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

9.4%

26.2%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madureira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Madureira - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Madureira will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Fluminense will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Madureira: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Mota (G) 2. Caua Coutinho 3. Marcao 4. Jean 5. Rodrigo Lindoso 6. Evandro 7. Minho 8. Wagninho 10. Marcelo (C) 11. Renato Henrique 20. Wallace	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 26. Manoel 6. Rene 5. Bernal F. 16. Nonato 7. Renato Augusto 37. Isaque 17. Canobbio A. 9. Kaua Elias
Substitutes
14. Arthur Edeson 22. Celsinho 13. da Silva Freire M. V. 16. Felipe C. 18. Fuba 9. Hugo Cabral 21. Isaias 17. Jefferson Victor 15. Lira M. 19. Lucas Paraiba 23. Welington Zaru 1. Yan (G)	14. Cano G. 40. Davi Schuindt 22. Freytes J. 12. Fuentes G. 35. Hercules 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 8. Martinelli 77. Paulo Baya 28. Riquelme Felipe 2. Samuel Xavier 90. Serna K. 20. Victor Hugo
Coaches
Neri D.	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Caua Coutinho 🟨,
18', Evandro 🟨,
23', Manoel 🟨,
43', Guga 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Renato Augusto ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
58', Marcao ↓, Arthur Edeson ↑,
62', Rodrigo Lindoso ↓, Lira M. ↑,
62', Caua Coutinho ↓, Celsinho ↑,
63', Minho ↓, Hugo Cabral ↑,
63', Kaua Elias ↓, Cano G. ↑,
63', Canobbio A. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
63', Lira M. 🟨,
70', Nonato 🟨,
73', Nonato ↓, Hercules ↑,
73', Guga ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
84', Wallace ↓, da Silva Freire M. V. ↑,
89', da Silva Freire M. V. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Madureira won 0.

Recent matches Fluminense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fluminense is certain favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Madureira won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 13:30 (average 1:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Madureira won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:17 (average 1.2:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madureira EC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Portuguesa RJ - Madureira	2:1 ✺
16.01.25	Madureira - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Madureira - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
28.08.24	Madureira - Bonsucesso	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLTWL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.01.25	Portuguesa RJ - Fluminense	1:3 ✺
18.01.25	Fluminense - Maricá	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Volta Redonda - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Fluminense - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
17.02.24	Madureira - Fluminense	0:1
22.01.23	Madureira - Fluminense	0:1
30.01.22	Madureira - Fluminense	0:1
25.04.21	Fluminense - Madureira	4:1
01.03.20	Fluminense - Madureira	5:1
30.01.19	Fluminense - Madureira	4:0
28.01.18	Madureira - Fluminense	1:2

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