Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - Round 10

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade du 26 Mars (Bamako)

Referee: Gatogato G. (Bur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 1
France	New World TV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Madagascar	MATV
Mali	ORTM
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	FIFA+


	Mali		Madagascar

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.9	Watch
	1.92	3.35	3.7
	2.02	3.32	3.54
	1.28	5.00	11.18	Watch
				Watch
	1.95	3.26	4.04	Watch
	1.42	4	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.42)	3.71 ↓ (4)	5.81 ↓ (8.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mali
56.3%

Draw
26.7%

Madagascar
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

23.3%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mali's form might have worsened.

Madagascar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Madagascar's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Mali - Madagascar Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Mali will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Madagascar will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mali: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Madagascar (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Madagascar (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Madagascar (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Madagascar (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Samassa M. (G) Laval 21. Coulibaly W. Sassuolo 5. Camara O. Angers 15. Fofana M. New England Revolution 3. Dante A. Arouca 20. Sangare M. Lens 23. Dieng A. (C) Al Ahly 11. Coulibaly L. Lecce 19. Doumbia K. Brest 7. Nene D. Fenerbahce 17. Sinayoko L. Auxerre	1. Dupire G. (G) Hesperange 3. Pelmard A. Jagiellonia 5. Tremoulet S. Radnik Surdulica 22. Randriamanampsioa N. Disciples 18. Jean-Pierre M. Fleury-Merogis 7. Raveloson R. Young Boys 6. Ilaimaharitra M. St. Liege 14. Couturier C. 11. Raheriniaina E. H. Valenciennes 17. Iva T. Creteil 13. Adinany B. Lierse SK
Substitutes
10. Bissouma Y. Tottenham 12. Camara M. Al-Sadd 6. Diakite G. Lausanne 14. Diarra G. Feyenoord 1. Diawara I. (G) Sirius 13. Doucoure F. Le Havre 9. Doumbia M. Watford 4. Haidara A. RB Leipzig 2. Konate C. O. Clermont 18. Sangare M. Levski Sofia 8. Sylla M. Schalke 22. Traore N. (G) Stade Malien	8. N'Zi J. 19. Ponti R. Rodez 21. Rafanomezantsoa L. Paradou 16. Rakotoasimbola Z. (G) 10. Rakotoharimalala N. Ratchaburi 12. Rakotoson M. 23. Ramandimbisoa M. (G) 4. Randriamanampisoa N. Elgeco Plus 20. Randrianantenaina A. El Gouna 9. Razafimaro F. Elgeco Plus
Coaches
Saintfiet T.	Martins C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Coulibaly L. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Nene D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', Couturier C. ↓, N'Zi J. ↑,
61', Iva T. ↓, Randrianantenaina A. ↑,
64', 3 - 0, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Coulibaly W. (A),
66', Coulibaly L. ↓, Bissouma Y. ↑,
66', Nene D. ↓, Diarra G. ↑,
72', Bissouma Y. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
76', Adinany B. ↓, Rakotoharimalala N. ↑,
76', Raheriniaina E. H. ↓, Ponti R. ↑,
79', Sinayoko L. 🟨,
81', Sinayoko L. ↓, Sylla M. ↑,
81', Doumbia K. ↓, Diakite G. ↑,
84', Dieng A. 🟨,
90', 3 - 1, N'Zi J. ⚽, Rakotoharimalala N. (A),
90+2', Diakite G. 🟨,
90+5', 4 - 1, Diarra G. ⚽,

Preview

Madagascar is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Mali is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mali won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mali
FIFA World Cup
08.10.25	Chad - Mali	0:2 ✺
08.09.25	Ghana - Mali	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Mali - Comoros	3:0 ✺
Friendly
05.06.25	D.R. Congo - Mali	1:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
24.03.25	Central Africa - Mali	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLWLT
- Madagascar
FIFA World Cup
08.10.25	Comoros - Madagascar	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Madagascar - Chad	3:1 ✺
04.09.25	Madagascar - Central Africa	2:0 ✺
African Nations Championship
30.08.25	Madagascar - Morocco	2:3 ✺
26.08.25	Madagascar - Sudan	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
11.06.24	Madagascar - Mali	0:0

Mali - Madagascar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide