Match Info

Date: 4 August 2022, Thursday

Location: Ljudski vrt (Maribor)

Referee: Kabakov G. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Maribor		HJK

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.25
	2.25	3.1	3.3
	2.25	3.2	3.25
	2.2	3.1	3.4
	2.25	3.08	3.63
	2.3	3	3.4
	2.25	3.1	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.97)	3.11 ↓ (3.4)	3.36 ↓ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maribor
41.9%

Draw
30.2%

HJK
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

28%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

29.8%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maribor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maribor's form might have worsened.

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maribor than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maribor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for HJK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.7%	23%	25.3%

Maribor - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: 87 users predict this event. Maribor will win (votes: 45 - 51.7%). HJK will win (votes: 22 - 25.3%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 23%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Maribor: 41.2% – 62.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg.

Maribor is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches HJK is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Maribor will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Maribor
Slovenian PrvaLiga
31.07.22	Koper - Maribor	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.07.22	Sheriff Tiraspol - Maribor	1:0 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
23.07.22	Maribor - Gorica	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.07.22	Maribor - Sheriff Tiraspol	0:0 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
16.07.22	Maribor - Radomlje	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWTL
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
30.07.22	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.07.22	Viktoria Plzeň - HJK	5:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.07.22	Ilves - HJK	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.07.22	HJK - Viktoria Plzeň	1:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
16.07.22	HJK - VPS Vaasa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWLW

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