Match Info

LITHUANIA: I LYGA - ROUND 21

Date: 30 August 2023, Wednesday


	Marijampolė City		BFA Vilnius

	1	X	2
	2.49	3.97	2.15
	2.36	3.84	2.49
	3	3.75	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (3.23)	3.85 ↑ (3.58)	2.2 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marijampolė City
34.9%

Draw
23.7%

BFA Vilnius
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

25.3%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

24.6%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marijampolė City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marijampolė City's performance.

BFA Vilnius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and BFA Vilnius might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marijampolė City than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marijampolė City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that BFA Vilnius could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Marijampolė City - BFA Vilnius Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. BFA will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 5 and 11).

Recent matches Marijampolė City is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

BFA is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Marijampolė City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

BFA will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Marijampolė City won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Marijampolė City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marijampolė City
Lithuanian Division 2
26.08.23	Ekranas - Marijampolė City	0:1 ✺
21.08.23	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Marijampolė City	6:0 ✺
14.08.23	Panevėžys 2 - Marijampolė City	0:1 ✺
05.08.23	Marijampolė City - Garliava	1:3 ✺
29.07.23	Marijampolė City - FA Šiauliai B	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLWLL
- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
26.08.23	BFA Vilnius - Babrungas Plungė	1:2 ✺
21.08.23	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - BFA Vilnius	2:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
16.08.23	BFA Vilnius - Kauno Žalgiris	0:5 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
12.08.23	Ekranas - BFA Vilnius	1:0 ✺
07.08.23	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - BFA Vilnius	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
15.04.23	BFA Vilnius - Marijampolė City	0:2
09.07.22	Marijampolė City - BFA Vilnius	2:0

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