Match Info

Serie C - Play Offs - Final

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	17:00	SportyNet


	Maringá		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.00	3.50
	2.12	3.00	3.30	Watch
	2.05	3.20	3.92
	2.13	3.18	3.5	Watch
	1.98	3.05	3.85
	2.14	3.13	3.54
	2.06	3.10	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.95)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	3.58 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
44.6%

Draw
29.7%

Ferroviária
25.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.3%

28.7%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

31.1%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maringá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Maringá - Ferroviária Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Maringá will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ferroviária will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 18. Jhow Alecxander 28. Lucas Bonifacio 21. Ronald Camarao 30. Ronald Carvalho 37. Serginho 6. Thiago Rosa 4. Wendel Lomar	31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 44. Carlao 77. Juninho 2. Lucas Rodrigues 99. Maranhao 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho (C) 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
1. Affonso de Jesus G. (G) 20. Bruno Cheron 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 10. Guilherme Pira 17. Iago Santana 44. Jesiel 19. Julio Rodrigues 77. Rafinha 29. Rai Natalino	21. Alan Stence 9. Denilson Chaves 36. Douglas Skilo 12. Fabio Rampi (G) 7. Fau 15. Fernandinho 4. Guilherme Ferreira 18. Rafael Carillho 30. Raoni 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M. 26. Vinicius Kaue
Coaches
Campanari I.	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Adeilson 🟨,
45+4', Ivan Campanari 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Jhow Alecxander ↓, Gabriel Souza ↑,
62', Maranhao ↓, Denilson Chaves ↑,
62', Juninho ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Ronald Camarao ⚽, Lucas Bonifacio (A),
76', Vitor Barreto ↓, Fau ↑,
76', Ricardinho ↓, Schilling Arthur ↑,
77', Serginho 🟨,
77', Serginho ↓, Iago Santana ↑,
78', Caique Calito ↓, Rai Natalino ↑,
80', Iago Santana 🟨,
81', Rhuan ↓, Alan Stence ↑,
88', Ronald Camarao ↓, Guilherme Pira ↑,
90+1', Edison Negueba 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Serie B and 1st in the Promotion - Serie B).

Maringá has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ferroviária is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Maringá is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Maringá has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:5 (averaging 1.2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Maringá against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.07%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
10.10.26	Maringá - Floresta	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Maringá	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTTWL
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
11.10.26	Ferroviária - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Paysandu - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Brusque - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
04.04.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	3:2
Brazilian Serie D
15.07.23	Ferroviária - Maringá	1:2
13.05.23	Maringá - Ferroviária	0:0
25.05.19	Ferroviária - Maringá	0:1
18.05.19	Maringá - Ferroviária	0:2

Maringá - Ferroviária