Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Santa Cruz Recife		Maringá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.40	2.75	2.90
	2.43	2.88	2.85	Watch
	2.51	2.72	3.22
	2.5	2.8	3.2
	2.45	2.65	3.15
	2.45	2.86	3.22	Watch
	2.42	2.70	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.43)	2.77 ↓ (2.95)	3.07 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
37.2%

Draw
33%

Maringá
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

30.4%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

30.6%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Maringá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Santa Cruz Recife - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 28. Eron 3. Eurico 37. Everaldo 13. Matheus Vinicius 5. Pedro Favela 19. Renato 17. Ronald 26. Silva 2. Thiago Ennes 4. William Alves (C)	25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 18. Jhow Alecxander 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho 21. Ronald Camarao 30. Ronald Carvalho 6. Thiago Rosa 4. Wendel Lomar (C)
Substitutes
15. Andrey 8. Arilson 10. Cassiano 7. Fabinho 32. Joao Pedro 9. Matheus Cadorini 11. Matheus Melo 20. Patrick Allan 12. Rokenedy (G) 18. Willian Junior 31. Ze Mario	1. Affonso de Jesus G. (G) 20. Bruno Cheron 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 10. Guilherme Pira 17. Iago Santana 19. Julio Rodrigues 5. Kelvi Gomes 77. Rafinha 16. Rian Patric 37. Serginho
Coaches
Cristian Souza	Campanari I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Adeilson ⚽,
2', Everaldo 🟨,
40', Eurico ↓, Edson Miranda ↑,
45+1', Matheus Vinicius 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Thiago Ennes ↓, Willian Junior ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Pedro Favela ⚽,
59', Caique Calito ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
60', Wendel Lomar 🟨,
60', Edson Miranda 🟨,
64', Ronald ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
74', Eron ↓, Matheus Cadorini ↑,
74', Everaldo ↓, Arilson ↑,
76', Ronald Camarao ↓, Serginho ↑,
76', Jhow Alecxander ↓, Gabriel Souza ↑,
90+3', Silva ↓, Fabinho ↑,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Serie B and 2nd in the Promotion - Serie B).

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Santa Cruz has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91% Maringa FC: 6.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Maringá - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.64%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
26.09.26	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Anápolis - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 TWWWT
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
26.09.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Paysandu - Maringá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1
23.05.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1

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