Match Info

MALTA: Challenge League - Round 15

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Marsa		Valletta

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.49
	4.8	3.85	1.58
	5.65	3.98	1.47
	5.63	4.08	1.5
	4.64	5.16	1.49
	4.8	3.85	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.09 ↑ (3.93)	4.15 ↑ (3.58)	1.52 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsa
17.9%

Draw
22%

Valletta
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

25.5%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

25.5%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marsa's form might have worsened.

Valletta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valletta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marsa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valletta than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valletta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Marsa - Valletta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caruana R. (G) 7. Agius D. (C) 10. Aquilina G. 22. Bugeja G. 98. Bugeja S. 81. Cipriott S. 9. Claudir 17. Engerer J. 26. Gatt K. 99. Sgaria R. 4. Zerafa D.	1. Aquilina T. (G) 23. Attard A. 11. Azzopardi J. 9. Ciolacu A. 16. Jeferson Carioca 28. MacKay S. 4. Micallef N. 2. Mushagalusa E. 10. Paiber B. (C) 25. Walker J. 8. Zammit A.
Substitutes
30. Abela I. 8. Aboumehdi J. 18. Azzopardi J. 6. Bugeja M. 21. Grima D. (G) 13. Mifsud L. (G) 20. Muscat L. 16. Sylla A. (G) 23. Tom Tom	21. Azzopardi Conti K. 17. Barbara Z. 5. Cassar Z. 15. Ewurum K. 20. Farrugia K. 13. Frendo L. (G) 30. Lapira P. 18. Ohaka P. 33. Scicluna J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Sgaria R. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Paiber B. ⚽,
31', MacKay S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Bugeja G. 🟨,
60', Claudir ↓, Muscat L. ↑,
64', Mushagalusa E. ↓, Cassar Z. ↑,
64', Zammit A. ↓, Scicluna J. ↑,
64', Zerafa D. ↓, Azzopardi J. ↑,
72', Bugeja G. ↓, Tom Tom ↑,
90', Gatt K. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Marsa is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Valletta is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Valletta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Valletta is certain favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Marsa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Including matches at home between the teams Marsa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsa FC
Maltese FA Trophy
05.02.25	Marsa - Sliema Wanderers	0:4 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
01.02.25	Gudja United - Marsa	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	Marsa - St. Andrews	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Marsa - Żebbuġ Rangers	4:2 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
11.01.25	Pietà Hotspurs - Marsa	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTWW
- Valletta FC
Maltese FA Trophy
05.02.25	Gżira United - Valletta	0:1 ET ✺
Maltese Challenge League
02.02.25	Mtarfa - Valletta	0:2 ✺
25.01.25	Valletta - Swieqi United	2:1 ✺
18.01.25	Pietà Hotspurs - Valletta	0:1 ✺
04.01.25	Valletta - Gudja United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese FA Trophy
02.12.18	Marsa - Valletta	0:3

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