Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 26

Date: 2 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal)

Referee: Godinho L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Marítimo		Boavista

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.2	3.15	3.25
	2.32	3.28	3.43
	2.25	3.1	3.3
	2.23	3.3	3.32	Watch
	2.26	3.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.59)	3.2 ↑ (3.15)	3.29 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
42%

Draw
29.3%

Boavista
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29.7%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29.2%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marítimo's performance.

Boavista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boavista might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marítimo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Marítimo - Boavista Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 10 - 45.5%). Boavista will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marítimo: 24.7% – 66.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 12).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 16 (44.06%), project points - 26, currently - 16, a good chance of relegated (65%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Boavista has the most likely position - 13 (21.75%), project points - 40, currently - 30, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 43, small importance 23, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Marítimo will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Marítimo: Catamo G. (Injury) Mendes D. (Injury) Rene (Red Card)

There will not play in Boavista: Penaranda A. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Marítimo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
19.03.23	Casa Pia - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Marítimo - Benfica	0:3 ✺
05.03.23	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Marítimo - Santa Clara	3:1 ✺
18.02.23	Portimonense - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL
- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
19.03.23	Boavista - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
12.03.23	Sporting Lisbon - Boavista	3:0 ✺
03.03.23	Boavista - Arouca	0:0 ✺
26.02.23	Paços de Ferreira - Boavista	1:3 ✺
20.02.23	Benfica - Boavista	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
09.10.22	Boavista - Marítimo	1:1
16.04.22	Marítimo - Boavista	4:0
04.12.21	Boavista - Marítimo	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
25.07.21	Marítimo - Boavista	0:1
Liga Portugal
25.04.21	Boavista - Marítimo	0:1

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