Match Info

Victoria Premier League - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday


	Melbourne Victory Youth		Eltham Redbacks

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.75	2.95
	1.82	3.80	3.20
	1.88	3.8	3.35
	1.98	3.95	3.03	Watch
	1.84	4	3.25
	1.82	4.36	3.32
	1.81	3.9	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.82)	3.94 ↑ (3.8)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory Youth
48.5%

Draw
23%

Eltham Redbacks
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

23.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

22.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory Youth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Eltham Redbacks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory Youth than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eltham Redbacks than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Melbourne Victory Youth - Eltham Redbacks Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 2 - 0, ⚽,
90+4', 🟥,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Victoria Premier League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Victoria Premier League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Victory Youth is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Eltham Redbacks has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Victory Youth has had a series of home games.

Victory Youth is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Victory Youth won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Victory Youth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Youth
Australian Victoria Premier League
30.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Port Melbourne Sharks	4:0 ✺
23.08.26	Manningham United - Melbourne Victory Youth	0:3 ✺
17.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Melbourne Srbija	1:0 ✺
27.07.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - North Sunshine Eagles	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLWW
- Eltham Redbacks
Australian Victoria Premier League
30.08.26	Eltham Redbacks - Melbourne Knights	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Port Melbourne Sharks - Eltham Redbacks	0:2 ✺
14.08.26	Eltham Redbacks - Manningham United	5:0 ✺
31.07.26	Northcote City - Eltham Redbacks	1:0 ✺
24.07.26	Eltham Redbacks - Melbourne Srbija	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian Victoria Premier League
22.05.26	Eltham Redbacks - Melbourne Victory Youth	3:3
16.02.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Eltham Redbacks	2:1

Melbourne Victory Youth - Eltham Redbacks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide