The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Mercadal 29.9%
Draw 31.1%
Constancia 39%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
30%
31%
38.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30.3%
31.3%
38.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mercadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
Constancia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mercadal than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Constancia than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Mercadal - Constancia Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
(1 - 4)
Preview
One of todayโs top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 11 (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mercadal won 1.
Mercadal is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Constancia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Constancia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mercadal won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.7:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Mercadal won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Constancia
5
3
1
1
9:3
6
10
12
Mercadal
5
1
2
2
6:7
-1
5
Last Results with these Odds
Constancia - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 38.94%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
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