Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 22

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday


	Portmany		Mercadal

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.75	3.1
	2.52	3	2.58
	2.3	2.97	3.19
	2.31	2.95	3.17
	2.4	2.9	2.75
	2.41	3.02	2.73
	2.3	3.2	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (3.2)	2.97 ↑ (2.95)	2.91 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portmany
38.4%

Draw
30.5%

Mercadal
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

30.7%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

29.5%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portmany has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portmany's performance.

Mercadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mercadal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portmany than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portmany that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mercadal than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mercadal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Portmany - Mercadal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 11 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portmany won 1.

Portmany has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mercadal is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mercadal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Portmany won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Portmany won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Mercadal	5	1	2	2	6:7	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Portmany
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
14.03.26	Portmany - Inter Ibiza	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Llosetense - Portmany	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Portmany - Cardassar	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Manacor - Portmany	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Binissalem - Portmany	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WLWLW
- CE Mercadal
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
11.03.26	Mercadal - Rotlet Molinar	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Mercadal - Binissalem	0:0 ✺
04.03.26	Collerense - Mercadal	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Felanitx - Mercadal	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mercadal - Peña Deportiva	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
04.10.25	Mercadal - Portmany	2:0
22.02.25	Portmany - Mercadal	0:0
16.03.24	Mercadal - Portmany	2:1
29.10.23	Portmany - Mercadal	0:1
02.04.23	Portmany - Mercadal	2:0
03.12.22	Mercadal - Portmany	6:1
06.03.22	Mercadal - Portmany	0:1

Portmany - Mercadal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide