Match Info
National League North - Round 3Date: 18 August 2026, TuesdayLocation: Penydarren Park (Merthyr)
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Merthyr Town |
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AFC Telford United |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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2.2 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
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2.20 |
3.50 |
2.60 |
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2.38 |
3.45 |
2.55 |
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2.32 |
3.83 |
2.62 |
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2.52 |
3.76 |
2.46 |
 Watch |
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2.25 |
3.7 |
2.55 |
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2.29 |
3.58 |
2.54 |
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2.33 |
3.45 |
2.49 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.31 ↓
(2.52) |
3.6 ↓
(3.76) |
2.56 ↑
(2.46) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Merthyr Town
39.3% | Draw
25.3% | AFC Telford United
35.4% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)AFC Telford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (+3.2%)Merthyr Town - AFC Telford United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 21', 1 - 0, Evans K. ⚽,
- 45+3', 1 - 1, Owen R. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 56', 1 - 2, Stenson M. ⚽,
- 76', 2 - 2, Wigley M. ⚽,
Preview
The current form of both teams is below expectations.Telford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.Recently, Telford has had a series of home games. In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Merthyr won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 2.5:3).Including home match between the teams, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 15 |
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| 21 | AFC Telford | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 12 |
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Outrights of English National League North for now
Merthyr Town: 1.12%
Last Results with these Odds
AFC Telford United - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.02%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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