Match Info

National League North - Round 2

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: The Brewery Field (Spennymoor)


	Spennymoor Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.1
	1.90	3.50	3.20
	2	3.45	3.15
	2.05	3.73	3.26
	2.03	3.74	3.23	Watch
	2.01	3.5	3.35
	2.05	3.67	3.25
	2.01	3.5	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.89)	3.57 ↓ (3.9)	3.21 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spennymoor Town
45.8%

Draw
25.6%

Merthyr Town
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

23.8%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spennymoor Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Spiers W. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
60', 0 - 1, Simpson K. ⚽,
88', 1 - 1, Taylor G. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 1, Taylor G. ⚽,

Preview

Merthyr's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Merthyr may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Merthyr has had a series of home games.

Spennymoor might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Spennymoor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 4.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Spennymoor won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Merthyr Town: 1.46% Spennymoor: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13
23	Spennymoor	10	1	4	5	11:21	-10	7

Last Results with these Odds

Spennymoor Town - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.12%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spennymoor Town
English National League North
25.04.26	Spennymoor Town - Marine	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Macclesfield Town - Spennymoor Town	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Spennymoor Town - Worksop Town	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Scarborough Athletic - Spennymoor Town	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Spennymoor Town - South Shields	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 TWLLT
- Merthyr Town
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Worcester City - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Merthyr Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:0 ✺
18.07.26	Merthyr Town - Forest Green Rovers	1:2 ✺
14.07.26	Merthyr Town - Yeovil Town	2:2 ✺
10.07.26	Merthyr Town - Cambrian United	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
14.03.26	Merthyr Town - Spennymoor Town	2:3
18.10.25	Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town	6:4

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