Match Info

National League North - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: RAW Charging Stadium (Oxford)


	Oxford City		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.3
	2.62	3.6	2.3
	2.58	3.92	2.34	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.3
	2.56	3.54	2.29
	2.54	3.8	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (3.04)	3.64 ↓ (3.85)	2.31 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford City
35.6%

Draw
25%

Merthyr Town
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

24.1%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

23.7%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford City than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Oxford City - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Livermore A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
62', 0 - 2, Twamley L. ⚽,
64', 0 - 3, Cox C. ⚽,
88', 1 - 3, Clark E. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent performances by Oxford City have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Merthyr is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.31%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford City
English National League North
20.12.25	Spennymoor Town - Oxford City	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Oxford City - Darlington	5:1 ✺
29.11.25	Oxford City - King`s Lynn Town	0:1 ✺
25.11.25	AFC Telford United - Oxford City	4:0 ✺
22.11.25	Marine - Oxford City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLLT
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
20.12.25	Merthyr Town - Curzon Ashton	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Fylde - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Buxton - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Merthyr Town - Leamington	4:1 ✺
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WLWWW

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