Match Info

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.50	2.45
	2.38	3.45	2.43
	2.45	3.55	2.60
	2.43	3.59	2.58	Watch
	2.40	3.40	2.50
	2.26	3.56	2.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 (2.38)	3.51 ↑ (3.45)	2.52 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
38.1%

Draw
25.9%

Morecambe
36.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25.8%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

25.7%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Merthyr Town - Morecambe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 15th and 19th).

Recent results have been tough for Merthyr (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Morecambe have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Merthyr Town	12	3	6	3	14:13	1	15
19	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15:11	4	14

Outrights of English National League North for now

Morecambe: 4.87% Merthyr Town: 1.12%

Last Results with these Odds

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 37.46%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Morecambe - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 36.69%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
17.10.26	Merthyr Town - King`s Lynn Town	1:1 ✺
10.10.26	Darlington - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Merthyr Town - Marine	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
22.09.26	Truro City - Merthyr Town	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Merthyr Town - Truro City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTLLT
- Morecambe
English FA Cup
17.10.26	Rushden & Diamonds - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
English National League North
10.10.26	Worksop Town - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Morecambe - Darlington	3:0 ✺
English National League North
26.09.26	Oxford City - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Morecambe - Brackley Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWTW

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