Match Info

Serie D - Group C - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Mestre		Obermais

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.05	7.3
	1.4	4.18	7.28	Watch
	1.4	3.8	7
	1.4	4.28	8.22
	1.42	4	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (2.16)	4.06 ↑ (3.35)	7.29 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mestre
65.1%

Draw
22.4%

Obermais
12.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.5%

27.4%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.5%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mestre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mestre's performance.

Obermais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Obermais might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mestre than the current prediction. (-21.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mestre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Obermais than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Obermais could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mestre - Obermais Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mestre (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, ⚽,
31', 2 - 1, ⚽,
36', 3 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group C (Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Mestre has had a series of away games.

In this match, Mestre is the obvious favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mestre	9	3	4	2	12:10	2	13
13	FC Obermais	9	2	3	4	11:15	-4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Mestre - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.46%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Mestre
Italian Serie D - Group C
04.01.26	San Luigi - Mestre	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Treviso - Mestre	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Mestre - Altavilla	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Legnago Salus - Mestre	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
03.12.25	Club Milano - Mestre	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLTWL
- FC Obermais
Italian Serie D - Group C
04.01.26	Obermais - Este	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Obermais - San Luigi	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Conegliano - Obermais	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Altavilla - Obermais	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Obermais - Cjarlins Muzane	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTTLW

Mestre - Obermais