Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Metz		Rodez

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	4	Watch
	2.05	3.50	3.30
	1.88	3.35	3.8	Watch
	1.94	3.75	3.93
	2.08	3.55	3.31	Watch
	1.82	3.9	4
	1.89	3.34	4.17	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.15)	3.53 ↑ (3.38)	3.81 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
49%

Draw
26.5%

Rodez
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

27.3%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

26.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Metz's performance.

Rodez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rodez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Metz - Rodez Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Rodez will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 70. Sarr B. (C) 42. Devenish C. 5. Ruiz J. 3. Miguel F. 8. Deminguet J. 18. Munongo B. 9. Abuashvili G. 10. Savanier T. 21. Pandore J. 11. Fall P. M.	16. Margueron L. (G) 13. Issanchou C. 24. Laurent L. 4. Magnin M. 3. Lipinski R. (C) 15. Jean-Lambert E. 6. Mendes J. 8. Pavlovic D. 22. Joly O. 7. Nagera K. 11. Touho M.
Substitutes
88. Ba A. 2. Colin M. 38. Kadamani H. 22. Mbala N. 33. Mbodji A. 4. Mboula M. 6. Mendy N. 98. Mohamed I. 61. Sy P. (G)	29. Cartillier A. 30. Crombez E. (G) 27. Essimi M. 28. Luyambula S. 9. Nsingi N. 21. Nsona K. 20. Ponti R. 10. Saka M. 17. Vangi D.
Coaches
Holtz L.	Santini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Fall P. M. ⚽, Miguel F. (A),
24', Ruiz J. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Issanchou C. ⚽, Nagera K. (A),
39', 2 - 1, Deminguet J. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
42', 3 - 1, Fall P. M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ruiz J. ↓, Mboula M. ↑,
46', Miguel F. ↓, Colin M. ↑,
58', 4 - 1, Fall P. M. ⚽, Deminguet J. (A),
62', Abuashvili G. 🟨,
66', Deminguet J. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
68', Pavlovic D. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
68', Joly O. ↓, Cartillier A. ↑,
74', Abuashvili G. ↓, Kadamani H. ↑,
74', Touho M. ↓, Nsingi N. ↑,
78', Savanier T. ↓, Ba A. ↑,
78', Issanchou C. ↓, Ponti R. ↑,
78', Nagera K. ↓, Nsona K. ↑,

Preview

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Metz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Metz could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Metz: Fischer J. (Inactive) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Marchal A. (Inactive) Toure A. (Transfer negotiations)

There will not play in Rodez: Baaloudj M. (Injury) Braat Q. (Injury) Doumbia C. (Coach's decision) Sylla M. (Inactive) Tebily H. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 2.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Metz: 4.88% Rodez: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Metz	8	2	4	2	12:11	1	10
15	Rodez	8	2	1	5	14:18	-4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Rodez - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.75%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
29.08.26	Annecy - Metz	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Metz - Laval	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Grenoble - Metz	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Metz - Guingamp	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Metz - Fortuna Sittard	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTTWW
- Rodez AF
French Ligue 2
28.08.26	Rodez - Pau	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Nantes - Rodez	2:5 ✺
14.08.26	Annecy - Rodez	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Rodez - Laval	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.26	Rodez - Nîmes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
02.05.25	Metz - Rodez	3:3
23.08.24	Rodez - Metz	1:3
31.01.23	Metz - Rodez	1:1
30.08.22	Rodez - Metz	1:4

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