Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 4

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Paul-Lignon (Rodez)

Referee: Benchabane F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Rodez		Pau

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.40	3.90	Watch
	1.80	3.70	4.00
	1.72	3.85	4.35	Watch
	1.76	4.03	4.55
	1.81	3.77	4.06	Watch
	1.81	3.90	4.05
	1.84	3.57	4.09	Watch
	1.79	3.65	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.82)	3.73 ↓ (3.82)	4.14 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodez
52.4%

Draw
25%

Pau
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

24.4%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

23.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Rodez - Pau Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Rodez (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rodez will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rodez will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Rodez (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Margueron L. (G) 13. Issanchou C. 24. Laurent L. 4. Magnin M. 3. Lipinski R. (C) 20. Ponti R. 6. Mendes J. 8. Pavlovic D. 29. Cartillier A. 18. Balde I. 11. Touho M.	1. Maubleu B. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 4. Dodote A. 88. Bamba A. 23. Briancon A. (C) 97. Abdallah A. 6. Fall C. 21. Benet J. 5. Rajot L. 7. Benali H. 9. Leye B.
Substitutes
26. Benchamma S. 30. Crombez E. (G) 15. Jean-Lambert E. 22. Joly O. 28. Luyambula S. 7. Nagera K. 9. Nsingi N. 17. Vangi D.	8. Basse S. 27. Gadegbeku L. 11. Lefebvre A. 56. Mbaye A. 14. Openda R. 29. Paquiez G. 19. Saettel T. 30. Salles E. (G) 39. Tourraine M.
Coaches
Santini D.	Debes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Leye B. ⚽, Benet J. (A),
3', Lipinski R. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Balde I. ⚽, Lipinski R. (A),
31', Debes T. 🟨,
37', 1 - 2, Leye B. ⚽, Briancon A. (A),
45+3', Benali H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Abdallah A. ↓, Basse S. ↑,
59', Leye B. ↓, Lefebvre A. ↑,
64', Rajot L. ↓, Gadegbeku L. ↑,
64', Ponti R. ↓, Jean-Lambert E. ↑,
64', Issanchou C. ↓, Luyambula S. ↑,
64', Touho M. ↓, Nagera K. ↑,
68', Benali H. ↓, Mbaye A. ↑,
68', Briancon A. ↓, Paquiez G. ↑,
70', Laurent L. 🟨,
72', Pavlovic D. ↓, Joly O. ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Joly O. ⚽, Magnin M. (A),
85', Laurent L. ↓, Nsingi N. ↑,
89', Magnin M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 2.

Rodez is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pau's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Rodez is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Rodez: Baaloudj M. (Coach's decision) Benchamma S. (Inactive) Braat Q. (Injury) Doumbia C. (Coach's decision) Tebily H. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Pau: Daubin Q. (Inactive) Gasnier K. (Inactive)

We predict that Rodez will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:28. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Rodez won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Rodez: 1.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Pau FC	7	2	2	3	6:6	0	8
14	Rodez	7	2	1	4	14:16	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodez AF
French Ligue 2
22.08.26	Nantes - Rodez	2:5 ✺
14.08.26	Annecy - Rodez	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Rodez - Laval	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.26	Rodez - Nîmes	2:1 ✺
10.07.26	Rodez - Bastia	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLWWW
- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
21.08.26	Pau - Nancy	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	Dijon - Pau	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Pau - Annecy	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Pau - Real Unión de Irun	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Real Sociedad B - Pau	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
03.01.26	Pau - Rodez	3:3
26.09.25	Rodez - Pau	1:2
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Rodez - Pau	2:4
French Ligue 2
14.02.25	Pau - Rodez	0:5
06.12.24	Rodez - Pau	1:0
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Rodez - Pau	1:4
French Ligue 2
13.01.24	Rodez - Pau	2:1

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