Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Mineros de Fresnillo		Tritones Vallarta

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.3
	2.46	3.44	2.46
	2.54	3.3	2.43
	2.55	3.35	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.86)	3.32 (3.32)	2.39 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mineros de Fresnillo
35.3%

Draw
27.1%

Tritones Vallarta
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.4%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

26.2%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mineros de Fresnillo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Tritones Vallarta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mineros de Fresnillo than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tritones Vallarta than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tritones Vallarta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mineros de Fresnillo - Tritones Vallarta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(2 - 2)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Fresnillo won 1.

Mineros de Fresnillo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tritones Vallarta is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tritones Vallarta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tritones Vallarta has had a series of home games.

Tritones Vallarta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Fresnillo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mineros de Fresnillo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mineros de Fresnillo
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
26.09.25	Tecos FC - Mineros de Fresnillo	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Mineros de Fresnillo - Guerreros de Autlán	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tuzos UAZ	1:4 ✺
05.09.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Mineros de Fresnillo	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Mineros de Fresnillo - Ensenada	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLL
- Tritones Vallarta MFC
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
27.09.25	Tritones Vallarta - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Tritones Vallarta - Zapotlanejo	5:0 ✺
06.09.25	Tritones Vallarta - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Tritones Vallarta - La Piedad	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Colima - Tritones Vallarta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
25.01.25	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tritones Vallarta	2:0
21.09.24	Tritones Vallarta - Mineros de Fresnillo	2:1
14.10.23	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tritones Vallarta	0:0
28.01.23	Tritones Vallarta - Mineros de Fresnillo	3:0
10.09.22	Mineros de Fresnillo - Tritones Vallarta	0:1
09.03.22	Tritones Vallarta - Mineros de Fresnillo	4:1

Mineros de Fresnillo - Tritones Vallarta: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide