Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Fuentes A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Mirandés		Racing Santander

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.65	2.09
	2.92	3.57	2.30	Watch
	3.6	3.48	1.99	Watch
	2.77	3.6	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.7)	3.57 ↑ (3.55)	2.11 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirandés
28.5%

Draw
26.6%

Racing Santander
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

26.1%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

25.6%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirandés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mirandés's form might have worsened.

Racing Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Racing Santander's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirandés than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mirandés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Santander than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	17.6%	64.7%

Mirandés - Racing Santander Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Mirandés will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Racing will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Racing Santander will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nikic I. (G) 2. Novoa Ramos H. 22. Gutierrez J. (C) 4. Pascual M. 24. Cordoba I. 17. Perez P. 11. Cardero A. 6. Helguera T. 18. Barea Fernandez I. 10. Fernandez C. 14. Mari A.	1. Ezkieta J. (G) 2. Mantilla A. 21. Ramon P. 16. Gonzalez F. 3. Garcia M. 14. Gueye M. 19. Puerta G. 11. Martin A. 18. Canales P. 10. Vicente I. 29. Jeremy Arevalo
Substitutes
30. El Jebari S. 20. Eto'o E. 19. Illesca M. 13. Juanpa (G) 8. Martin Luis A. 3. Medrano F. 9. Petit G. 5. Pica A. 21. Postigo S. 27. Tamarit T. 7. Varela I.	8. Aldasoro A. 13. Andreev P. (G) 9. Arana J. 7. Cabanzon Y. 20. Camara S. 5. Castro J. 4. Manu 6. Sainz-Maza I. 36. Sergio M. 12. Villalibre A.
Coaches
Justo F.	Lopez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Cardero A. ⚽, Fernandez C. (A),
40', Gueye M. 🟨,
42', Mari A. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Jeremy Arevalo ⚽, Vicente I. (A),
45+3', Cordoba I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', 1 - 2, Canales P. ⚽,
71', Novoa Ramos H. ↓, Tamarit T. ↑,
71', Barea Fernandez I. ↓, Illesca M. ↑,
72', Jeremy Arevalo ↓, Villalibre A. ↑,
72', Gueye M. ↓, Sainz-Maza I. ↑,
72', 1 - 3, Villalibre A. ⚽, Canales P. (A),
74', Perez P. 🟨,
75', Cardero A. ↓, El Jebari S. ↑,
75', Mari A. ↓, Eto'o E. ↑,
80', Pascual M. ↓, Petit G. ↑,
85', Vicente I. ↓, Castro J. ↑,
85', Martin A. ↓, Camara S. ↑,
90+1', Canales P. ↓, Cabanzon Y. ↑,
90+4', Gutierrez J. 🟨,
90+7', Fernandez C. 🟨,
90+8', Puerta G. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirandés won 3.

Mirandés is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Racing has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Racing might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Mirandés: Bauza R. (Yellow Cards) Lopez P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Racing: Salinas J. (Jaw injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mirandés won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirandés won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Mirandés - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.37%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mirandés
Spanish LaLiga2
18.10.25	Ceuta - Mirandés	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Mirandés - Leganés	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Valladolid - Mirandés	1:1 ✺
26.09.25	Mirandés - Zaragoza	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	FC Andorra - Mirandés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTTLT
- Racing Santander
Spanish LaLiga2
19.10.25	Racing Santander - Deportivo A Coruña	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Sporting de Gijón - Racing Santander	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Racing Santander - Málaga	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Racing Santander - FC Andorra	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Córdoba - Racing Santander	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
12.06.25	Mirandés - Racing Santander	4:1
08.06.25	Racing Santander - Mirandés	3:3
22.03.25	Mirandés - Racing Santander	2:1
30.11.24	Racing Santander - Mirandés	0:1
11.05.24	Racing Santander - Mirandés	1:0
03.12.23	Mirandés - Racing Santander	0:0
06.05.23	Mirandés - Racing Santander	1:1

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