Match Info

J2 League - Round 26

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Mito HollyHock		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.9	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.45	Watch
	2.23	3.47	3.66
	3.53	3.46	2.01	Watch
	2	3.2	3.4
	2.18	3.14	3.44	Watch
	2.07	3.55	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.02)	3.31 ↓ (3.5)	3.3 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
42.4%

Draw
28.7%

Júbilo Iwata
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

25.4%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

The chances for Júbilo Iwata have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Mito HollyHock - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mito HollyHock: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mito HollyHock (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Nishikawa K. (G) 6. Iida T. 36. Itakura K. 97. Takahashi T. 2. Omori S. 99. Kato C. 3. Osaki K. 16. Tsukagawa K. 70. Arai M. 7. Watanabe A. 44. Okuda K.	21. Miura R. (G) 8. Tameda H. 5. Ezaki T. 36. Ricardo Graca 4. Matsubara K. 18. Inoue S. 7. Uehara R. 16. Gustavo Silva 23. Croux J. 20. Sato R. 71. Masui K.
Substitutes
5. Chinen T. 22. Kubo S. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 15. Nagao Y. 76. Nemoto R. 27. Okita S. 47. Semba T. 39. Yamamoto H. 24. Yamazaki K.	14. Arjvirai P. 38. Kawaguchi N. 33. Kawai T. 2. Kawasaki I. 1. Kawashima E. (G) 11. Matheus Peixoto 3. Morioka R. 39. Sumi K. 9. Watanabe R.
Coaches
Mori N.	Hutchinson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Gustavo Silva ⚽, Ricardo Graca (A),
14', 0 - 2, Masui K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Gustavo Silva ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
60', Arai M. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
60', Okuda K. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
62', Nemoto R. 🟨,
67', Osaki K. 🟨,
67', Masui K. ↓, Sumi K. ↑,
68', Sato R. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
68', Tsukagawa K. ↓, Semba T. ↑,
69', Uehara R. 🟨,
76', Croux J. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
76', Ezaki T. ↓, Morioka R. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Watanabe A. (Pen),
84', Nemoto R. ↓, Kubo S. ↑,
85', Kato C. ↓, Nagao Y. ↑,
86', 1 - 3, Watanabe R. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 0.

Mito HollyHock is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Iwata's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mito HollyHock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mito HollyHock might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:25. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mito HollyHock won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.8:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J2 League
10.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Mito HollyHock	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Mito HollyHock - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
05.07.25	Blaublitz Akita - Mito HollyHock	0:2 ✺
28.06.25	Mito HollyHock - Tokushima Vortis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWWT
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
10.08.25	Iwaki - Júbilo Iwata	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Fujieda MYFC - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
02.08.25	Júbilo Iwata - Blaublitz Akita	1:4 ✺
12.07.25	Júbilo Iwata - Consadole Sapporo	5:1 ✺
06.07.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
15.02.25	Júbilo Iwata - Mito HollyHock	3:2
04.11.23	Júbilo Iwata - Mito HollyHock	5:0
08.04.23	Mito HollyHock - Júbilo Iwata	1:5
14.11.21	Mito HollyHock - Júbilo Iwata	1:3
13.03.21	Júbilo Iwata - Mito HollyHock	3:2
02.12.20	Mito HollyHock - Júbilo Iwata	2:1
09.09.20	Júbilo Iwata - Mito HollyHock	0:0

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