Match Info

J2 League - Round 25

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.25	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.15
	3.1	3.2	2.18	Watch
	3.29	3.33	2.29
	6.37	4.31	1.47	Watch
	3	3.1	2.25
	3.13	3.26	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (3.19)	3.39 ↑ (3.32)	2.11 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
26.8%

Draw
28.1%

Mito HollyHock
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

28.5%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

30%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	23.1%	69.2%

Montedio Yamagata - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mito HollyHock: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mito HollyHock (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 15. Kawai A. 22. Shirowa H. 5. Abe T. 13. Nodake H. 21. Tanaka W. 71. Nakamura R. 88. Doi S. 10. Kida R. 90. Disaro A. S. 25. Kokubu S.	34. Nishikawa K. (G) 6. Iida T. 36. Itakura K. 97. Takahashi T. 2. Omori S. 99. Kato C. 3. Osaki K. 15. Nagao Y. 8. Saito S. 7. Watanabe A. 44. Okuda K.
Substitutes
27. Enomoto K. 55. Horikane S. 3. Kumamoto Y. 19. Okamoto K. 14. Sakamoto K. 45. Shibuya T. (G) 9. Takahashi J. 17. Terayama T. 2. Yoshida T.	70. Arai M. 5. Chinen T. 22. Kubo S. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 76. Nemoto R. 47. Semba T. 16. Tsukagawa K. 4. Ushizawa T. 39. Yamamoto H.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Mori N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Watanabe A. ⚽, Okuda K. (A),
20', 0 - 2, Osaki K. ⚽, Iida T. (A),
26', Abe T. 🟨,
28', Kato C. 🟨,
41', Nagao Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Disaro A. S. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
46', Kokubu S. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
46', Nagao Y. ↓, Tsukagawa K. ↑,
46', Kato C. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
47', Nakamura R. 🟨,
73', Watanabe A. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
73', Nakamura R. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
81', Doi S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
81', Okuda K. ↓, Arai M. ↑,
85', Tanaka W. ↓, Yoshida T. ↑,
87', Shirowa H. 🟨,
87', Saito S. ↓, Chinen T. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Horikane S. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 1.

In recent matches, Montedio Yamagata has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mito HollyHock is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mito HollyHock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mito HollyHock will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan Emperors Cup
06.08.25	Montedio Yamagata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
02.08.25	Ventforet Kofu - Montedio Yamagata	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.25	Montedio Yamagata - Reims	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata	4:5 penalties ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Montedio Yamagata - JEF United Chiba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24 LWWWL
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J2 League
03.08.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Mito HollyHock - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
05.07.25	Blaublitz Akita - Mito HollyHock	0:2 ✺
28.06.25	Mito HollyHock - Tokushima Vortis	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	Imabari - Mito HollyHock	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
23.02.25	Mito HollyHock - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
03.11.24	Mito HollyHock - Montedio Yamagata	1:3
12.05.24	Montedio Yamagata - Mito HollyHock	0:1
16.07.23	Mito HollyHock - Montedio Yamagata	3:1
02.04.23	Montedio Yamagata - Mito HollyHock	0:1
09.10.22	Montedio Yamagata - Mito HollyHock	0:0
12.06.22	Mito HollyHock - Montedio Yamagata	1:0

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