Match Info

SWEDEN: ALLSVENSKAN - ROUND 1

Date: 3 April 2023, Monday

Location: Strandvallen (Hällevik)

Referee: Wolf V. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Sweden	Discovery+


	Mjällby		Varbergs BoIS

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.7	6
	1.56	3.85	6.5
	1.9	3.35	3.65
	1.6	3.84	6.66
	1.55	3.4	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.84	6.25	Watch
	1.59	3.75	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.91)	3.69 ↑ (3.42)	6.03 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mjällby
58.6%

Draw
25.7%

Varbergs BoIS
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.3%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

26.6%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mjällby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mjällby's performance.

Varbergs BoIS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Varbergs BoIS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mjällby than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mjällby that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varbergs BoIS than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varbergs BoIS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	4%	16%

Mjällby - Varbergs BoIS Predictions

Users Predictions: Mjällby will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Mjällby has the most likely position - 9 (8.8%), project points - 38, currently - 0, a small chance of relegated (15%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (1%), a very small chance of win league (1%).

Varberg has the most likely position - 16 (21.79%), project points - 28, currently - 0, a chance of relegated (45%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 19, importance 38, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mjällby won 2.

Mjällby in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Varberg is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mjällby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Mjällby is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Mjällby won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Mjällby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mjällby AIF
Club Friendly
25.03.23	Mjällby - Landskrona	3:3 ✺
Svenska Cupen
18.03.23	Mjällby - Hammarby	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Kalmar - Mjällby	0:1 penalties ✺
04.03.23	Mjällby - Sirius	3:2 ✺
25.02.23	Oskarshamn - Mjällby	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.6 TWWWW
- Varbergs BoIS
Club Friendly
11.03.23	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	1:2 ✺
Svenska Cupen
06.03.23	AIK - Varbergs BoIS	3:0 ✺
26.02.23	Varbergs BoIS - Västerås SK	0:2 ✺
18.02.23	Varbergs BoIS - Östersund	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.02.23	Astrio - Varbergs BoIS	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
24.10.22	Mjällby - Varbergs BoIS	4:1
24.04.22	Varbergs BoIS - Mjällby	0:0
04.12.21	Varbergs BoIS - Mjällby	0:3
11.04.21	Mjällby - Varbergs BoIS	0:0
13.09.20	Mjällby - Varbergs BoIS	2:3
16.07.20	Varbergs BoIS - Mjällby	1:0
Swedish Superettan
03.11.19	Varbergs BoIS - Mjällby	1:1

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