Match Info

Superettan - Round 22

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Referee: Nehdi F. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Värnamo		Varbergs BoIS

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.55
	2.40	3.50	2.55
	2.45	3.4	2.62
	2.51	3.65	2.77
	2.51	3.53	2.62	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.7
	2.45	3.53	2.65	Watch
	2.41	3.4	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.5)	3.49 ↑ (3.4)	2.63 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
38%

Draw
26.6%

Varbergs BoIS
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

26.8%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

26%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Varbergs BoIS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varbergs BoIS than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Värnamo will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Varberg will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 18. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 2. Rapp J. 16. Ravik Z. 3. Bjornstrom A. 33. Akinfenwa M. 26. Johansson C. 10. Claesson V. (C) 7. Johansson C. 14. Antonsson M. 9. Meriluoto K.	29. Strindholm D. (G) 15. Johansson N. 17. Tellgren E. 2. Broman G. 5. Hellman E. 21. Vidjeskog I. (C) 28. Sadiku E. 8. Winbo A. 7. Arlig W. 23. Sibelius L. 19. Nilsson J.
Substitutes
8. Andersson H. 17. Bozicevic F. 15. Coulibaly S. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 24. Kamara M. 11. Ljungberg A. 39. Selin L. (G)	14. Alfonsi O. 49. Borgelin S. 24. Bryneus O. 22. Dahlstrom N. 1. Ekman O. (G) 18. Lindner J. 9. Shabani L. 20. Werner O. 3. Zackrisson H.
Coaches
Bergstrand K.	Salwen V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Sibelius L. ↓, Borgelin S. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Akinfenwa M. ↓, Ljungberg A. ↑,
63', Meriluoto K. ↓, Jansson S. ↑,
63', Johansson C. ↓, Andersson H. ↑,
65', Nilsson J. ↓, Bryneus O. ↑,
65', Arlig W. ↓, Shabani L. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Claesson V. ⚽,
83', Hellman E. ↓, Alfonsi O. ↑,
83', Sadiku E. ↓, Werner O. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Borgelin S. ⚽, Bryneus O. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Division 1 ~ Norra (Relegation) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Allsvenskan (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 3.

Värnamo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Varberg's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:27. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Värnamo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

Outrights of Swedish Superettan for now

Varberg: 0.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Varberg	25	13	5	7	44:33	11	44
11	Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33:45	-12	29

Last Results with these Odds

Värnamo - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.48%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
29.08.26	Ljungskile - Värnamo	0:1 ✺
24.08.26	Värnamo - Landskrona	1:1 ✺
Svenska Cupen
19.08.26	Växjö Norra - Värnamo	1:3 ✺
Swedish Superettan
16.08.26	Värnamo - Östersund	1:1 ✺
11.08.26	Helsingborg - Värnamo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTWTW
- Varbergs BoIS
Swedish Superettan
30.08.26	Varbergs BoIS - Oddevold	3:1 ✺
25.08.26	Örebro - Varbergs BoIS	2:1 ✺
Svenska Cupen
18.08.26	Böljan - Varbergs BoIS	0:5 ✺
Swedish Superettan
15.08.26	United Nordic - Varbergs BoIS	0:0 ✺
09.08.26	Varbergs BoIS - Sandviken	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
08.05.26	Varbergs BoIS - Värnamo	3:2
Swedish Allsvenskan
19.08.23	Varbergs BoIS - Värnamo	0:3
09.05.23	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	3:1
Club Friendly
11.03.23	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	1:2
Swedish Allsvenskan
17.09.22	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	1:0
03.07.22	Varbergs BoIS - Värnamo	3:0
Swedish Superettan
03.09.18	Varbergs BoIS - Värnamo	2:2

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