Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Dr.António Joao Eusebio (Moncarapacho)


	Moncarapachense		Lagoa

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.7	3.65
	1.96	2.89	4.33	Watch
	1.79	3.44	4.01
	1.57	3.4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.57)	3.36 ↓ (3.4)	4.37 ↓ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moncarapachense
51.7%

Draw
27.3%

Lagoa
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

26.4%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

25.5%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moncarapachense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moncarapachense's form might have worsened.

Lagoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moncarapachense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lagoa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Moncarapachense - Lagoa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Moncarapachense has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lagoa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Moncarapachense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Moncarapachense is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Moncarapachense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Moncarapachense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
28.09.25	Comércio e Indústria - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Moncarapachense - Anadia	1:2 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Alcochetense - Moncarapachense	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Moncarapachense - Oriental	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTWT
- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
28.09.25	Lagoa - Juventude de Évora	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Comércio e Indústria - Lagoa	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Lagoa - Louletano	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.08.25	Serpa - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
09.02.25	Lagoa - Moncarapachense	0:0
29.09.24	Moncarapachense - Lagoa	2:0

Moncarapachense - Lagoa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide