Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 4

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Gaillouste P. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Montpellier		Boulogne

	1	X	2
	1.70	3.10	4.75	Watch
	1.77	3.40	4.75
	1.73	3.55	4.80	Watch
	1.81	3.57	4.99
	1.81	3.42	4.59	Watch
	1.77	3.5	4.9
	1.76	3.50	4.71	Watch
	1.77	3.3	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.68)	3.42 ↓ (3.92)	4.79 ↑ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
53%

Draw
27.4%

Boulogne
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

23.8%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

22.8%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Boulogne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montpellier, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

The ML Model estimate for Boulogne aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	10.5%	0%

Montpellier - Boulogne Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Boulogne (1.80) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Montpellier will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Boulogne (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 3. El Hannach N. 15. Laporte J. (C) 27. Meddah D. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 5. Tardieu F. 32. Abderrebi H. 18. Pays N. 40. Vidal-Cartoux N. 19. Mukiele N. 9. Megnan-Pave L.	99. Noukeu B. (G) 21. Platret A. 18. Thiam D. 25. Kerriou A. 20. Brusco T. 12. Boyer J. 14. Bultel J. 19. Binet N. (C) 64. Epailly T. 10. Hbouch A. 17. Besic B.
Substitutes
90. Ayem G. 23. Benlahlou D. 35. Chambon M. 34. Diallo T. 77. Everson Jr 7. Issoufou Y. 1. Michel M. (G)	11. Fatar N. 4. Kapenga J. 26. Lenne O. 1. Lenogue X. (G) 8. Martin J. 7. Nassiri A. 28. Paillard S. 15. Pinot A. 36. Soumah M.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Dagneaux F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Besic B. 🟨,
23', Tardieu F. 🟨,
29', Tardieu F. (Penalty Awarded),
41', El Hannach N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Brusco T. 🟨,
60', Vidal-Cartoux N. ↓, Ayem G. ↑,
61', Mukiele N. ↓, Issoufou Y. ↑,
63', Bultel J. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
63', Platret A. ↓, Nassiri A. ↑,
74', Besic B. ↓, Fatar N. ↑,
74', Epailly T. ↓, Soumah M. ↑,
80', Brusco T. 🟨,
83', Soumah M. ↓, Pinot A. ↑,
90+2', El Hannach N. ↓, Benlahlou D. ↑,

Preview

Montpellier is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Boulogne is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Montpellier is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Camara M. (Inactive) Chennahi T. (Inactive) Gueguin A. (Knee Injury) Meddah D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Boulogne: Fatar N. (Inactive) Kone I. (Inactive) Martin J. (Inactive) Moco Z. (Eye injury) Siliadin L. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Montpellier won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Montpellier: 4.46% Boulogne: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	6:5	1	12
17	Boulogne	7	0	5	2	3:5	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
21.08.26	Dunkerque - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	Nancy - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Montpellier - Dijon	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Clermont - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
22.07.26	Montpellier - Cannes	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWTWL
- US Boulogne
French Ligue 2
21.08.26	Boulogne - Red Star	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Guingamp - Boulogne	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Boulogne - Nancy	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Valenciennes - Boulogne	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Boulogne - Rouen FC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
16.01.26	Boulogne - Montpellier	1:0
23.09.25	Montpellier - Boulogne	1:3

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